Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT TODAYS COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN EVENT FOR
THE WEEK.  FAST ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAKES TIMING
ADDITIONAL EVENTS...OR EVEN PICKING THEM OUT FROM THE NOISE
CHALLENGING.  LOW LEVEL JET FROM SOUTH EXPECTED TO GEL TODAY.
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH INTRUDING SURFACE AND
ELEVATED TROUGHS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO CONCENTRATE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF
SOUTH DAKOTA FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME
SEVERE GIVEN THE COOL UPPER LEVELS AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.  INHERITED LIKELY POPS FOR PARTS OF CWA.  KEPT GENERAL WEATHER
ARRANGEMENT BUT MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE.
NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.  EXPECT A
SHORTWAVE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MOST SHOWN IN THE MODEL DATA TO
WORK ACROSS THE CONUS AT THAT TIME.  FOR NOW ABILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE TO TAP GULF MOISTURE IS DOUBTFUL.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
JUST MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED ZONES THIS MORNING.
00Z GFS RUNS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A STRONGER WAVE WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA FRIDAY...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EASTERN CWA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SPREAD THE CHANCE OF RW- FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE JUST IN THE EASTERN CWA
SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND THEN REMAINS OVER
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOL TO START THE PERIOD WITH
AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. H85 TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...SO LOOKING AT MAINLY UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A
BIT OF A WARM UP WITH MORE SUN AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS WELL AS
RISING H85 TEMPS.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

MCNULTY/PARKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-161027-
BIG STONE-BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-TRAVERSE-
WALWORTH-
528 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND PERSIST UNTIL LATE EVENING.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAINLY OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.