Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NITE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PCPN POTENTIAL TNT.  MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
DEWPOINT AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH TNT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ISOLATED STORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS AND THESE SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BETTER LLJ.  EXPECTED STORMS OUT WEST TO
TRANSITION INTO ELEVATED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN CWA LATE.  THREAT OF SEVERE ACROSS EAST MINIMAL...BUT
WITH AN EVENING THREAT OUT WEST. FOR SATURDAY COULD SEE LINGERING
ACTIVITY IN THE EAST FOR THE MORNING BUT REST OF DAY LOOKING
PLEASANT WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS BY AFTERNOON.  REMAINDER OF SHORT
RANGE FEATURES A MID CONUS RIDGE INCREASING IN AMPLITUDE WITH VERY
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ADVECTING OFF HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS CWA.
PREFER TO CONTINUE IDEA OF MAJOR CAP IN PLACE AND THUS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  AS ALWAYS THERE
IS SOME CHANCE A STORM OR TWO COULD GET GOING ALONG WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS DRY LINE IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION AT THIS POINT.  AS FOR TEMPS DID BOOST THEM SOME BASED ON
LATEST MODEL TRENDS.  HAVE A FEELING I DIDNT BOOST THEM ENOUGH FOR
MONDAY.  ANYWAY...FINALLY LOOKING LIKE SUMMER FOR A CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NW CONUS WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES
IS SITUATED ACROSS SD WITH THERMAL RIDGE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE
AREA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE THINKING IN THAT MID LEVELS WILL
BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR CONVECTION AND THUS KEPT PRECIP OUT OF
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. NEXT WAVE MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SHOWING A
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD NE TOWARDS
WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE WED/THURS TIMEFRAME. TIMING THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS DIFFICULT AND THEREFORE LEFT WX/POP GRIDS ALONE
UNTIL THINGS GET A LITTLE CLEARER. GIVEN THE INDICATION OF A FRONT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE S/SE CWA FOR A FEW DAYS...TRIED TO REFLECT
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
S/SE AREAS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE NW.  ALL IN
ALL...THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED WITH
WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS THEN SHOW HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
IN FROM CANADA TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

THE TREND WITH TEMPS WAS TO RAISE THEM A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 90 DEGREE
READINGS ACROSS THE S/SE COUNTIES WITH 850MB TEMPS PUSHING +22C ON
TUESDAY AND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE CLOUD COVER IN VICINITY OF FRONT.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE
MN...NONE
&&

TDK/TT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
522 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-051020-
BIG STONE-BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-TRAVERSE-
WALWORTH-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

KNUTSVIG