Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONITE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SHORT RANGE IS CONVECTION CHANCE TNT.  FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON SAT PIX IT APPEARS MAIN FOCUS FOR TSRA THIS EVENING
MAY BE FOR AREAS NEAR THE LOWER MO VALLEY.  LAPS DATA INDICATES BEST
THETAE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THIS GENERAL AREA ALONG
WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM SC SD SFC LOW.  HOWEVER STILL A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP LIMITING TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. ALSO SEE
ON WV IMAGERY THAT ANOTHER RIDGE SQUASHING S/W WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST LATER TNT.  LEFTOVER INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR THIS
FEATURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCT ACTIVITY AS IT ROLLS ACROSS CWA
LATE. REST OF SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS KEPT DRY AS MOISTURE DEFICIENT
AIR OVERSPREADS MAJORITY OF THE CWA.  ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE IS FOR SW
CWA.  UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PROMOTE TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BOTH WED AND THU...ITS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
ROLL INTO SW CWA...HOWEVER MOST EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA.  THUS NO MENTION OF PCPN AT THIS TIME.  ALSO SEE A COUPLE
WEAK REINFORCING BOUNDARIES SLIDING SOUTH INTO CWA FROM THE
NORTH...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME AMOUNT OF MOIST/INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WERE REFRESHED WITH THE LATEST THINKING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FORECAST LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST LONG
RANGE MODEL DATASETS. COOLISH CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE SLOW WARM UP TOWARD MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS BECAUSE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
OVER EASTERN HALF OF CONUS AND CWA IN NW FLOW PATTERN. 850HPA
THERMAL PROGS REVEAL WARM AIR CONFINED TO THE ROCKIES UNDERNEATH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES BEING PROGGED
TO LIFT ONTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...THUS LEFT GOING WX GRIDS ALONE FOR DAY 4. REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT S/WS NOTED IN THE
FLOW AT THIS TIME.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TDK/AD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
514 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-211000-
BIG STONE-BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-TRAVERSE-
WALWORTH-
514 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO EASTERN SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT BECOMES SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

ALBRECHT