Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
945 AM MDT FRI SEP 24 2004

UPDATED PERIOD ONE ACROSS THE EAST FOR INCREASED POPS

.UPDATE...HAD A LITTLE SHOWER CELL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUAY
COUNTY THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC MODEL RUN INDICATES A BULLSEYE OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY EVEN WITH THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER GOING
ON THERE NOW. BEST LAYER LI/S BETWEEN -3 TO -4 THERE SO CAN SEE WHY
WITH A NEAR MOIST ADIABAT TAKEN THIS MORNING. DECIDED TO EXPAND THE
30 POP COVERAGE FROM THE SC MTS TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER BIG CHANGES REALLY NEEDED. 6Z GUIDANCE POP NUMBERS
CAME IN LOWER THAN THE 0Z SO WILL HAVE TO RELOOK THOSE VALUES IN
THE COMING FORECAST PERIODS BUT DONT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE AM PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE RETURN OF
MOISTURE TO THE STATE AND THE EXTENT OF PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE
RETURNING TO NM INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL THUS CONTINUE TREND OF
BUMPING UP POPS...ESPECIALLY SAT WHEN THINGS SEEM TO REACH A PEAK.
DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE THIS MORNING IN THE EC AND SE PLAINS AND LOW
CLOUDS FORMING IN THIS AREA. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY LIKELY
TO BE THE SC AND SE ZONES WHERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS.
ELSEWHERE MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED BUT ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE CNTRL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS WRN MOUNTAINS THIS PM.
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND ESP SAT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NW. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIP SOMEWHERE
ALONG NM/TX BORDER AS WEAK AND VARIED STEERING FLOW AT MID LEVELS
(LIGHT S OR SE AT 700 MB AND LIGHT W OR NW AT 500 MB).

TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES S THROUGH NM SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH GFS
STRONGER AND STRONGER WITH IT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF LESS
COVERAGE AND LOWER POPS SUN AND MON. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE
EXTENDED LATER BUT NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW...LOOKS
SLOWER WITH MAIN IMPACT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 076/046 074/047 075 40002
GALLUP.................... 076/038 073/042 073 40012
GRANTS.................... 076/038 072/041 073 40124
GLENWOOD.................. 082/050 079/051 080 40123
CHAMA..................... 068/031 063/035 066 40024
LOS ALAMOS................ 071/043 063/043 068 40135
RED RIVER................. 062/031 055/035 062 40125
TAOS...................... 070/035 061/039 068 40135
SANTA FE.................. 071/044 064/044 069 40035
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 075/046 066/046 072 40035
ESPANOLA.................. 075/042 069/044 074 40035
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 077/054 071/054 075 40035
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 078/050 072/048 077 40035
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 075/052 068/051 074 40035
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 076/054 072/052 076 40035
SOCORRO................... 078/049 075/053 079 40135
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 070/048 063/044 067 40145
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 072/044 068/041 072 40146
CARRIZOZO................. 076/054 069/050 075 40145
RUIDOSO................... 069/045 059/045 068 40356
RATON..................... 069/041 062/041 068 40145
LAS VEGAS................. 069/043 060/043 067 40146
ROY....................... 071/050 068/045 073 40144
CLAYTON................... 074/051 071/050 075 40043
SANTA ROSA................ 078/053 070/050 076 40146
TUCUMCARI................. 079/055 073/053 077 40044
FORT SUMNER............... 079/052 071/054 075 40145
CLOVIS.................... 078/056 071/055 076 40144
PORTALES.................. 080/056 071/056 077 40144
ROSWELL................... 079/058 074/057 077 40255
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

40/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT FRI SEP 24 2004

NMZ001>021-026-251200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT FRI SEP 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL CLOSE TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER
CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

40