Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT MON AUG 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE COVERAGE OF PCPN
AND TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE INTO SRN NM BY WED. WATER VAPOR
LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD SLY MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOON PLUME ON
BACKSIDE OF UPPER HIGH. THIS IS ALSO INDICATIVE ON 12Z RADIOSONDES
WITH PWATS AT KABQ/KMAF NEAR 1.25 INCHES AND KTUS APPROACHING 1.75
INCHES. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN COMBINED WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...WILL EXPECT A DECENT SHOT OF PCPN. NEW 18Z ETA40
DEPICTING BEST THREAT FOR QPF AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS MODEL FOR
THE FIRST PERIOD. WILL ALSO STICK WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE...HOWEVER
IT COULD BE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE EARLY EVENING AT SOME
CENTRAL NM LOCATIONS. LOCAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THESE
STORMS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST TOWARD MORNING ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE N/NW
ZONES TONIGHT...WILL SIDE WITH HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
DUE TO A LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS.

LAST FEW IMAGES ON WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE W AS 500MB FLOW ALREADY SHIFTING TO THE SW.
MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS PRETTY WELL AND SHUNTS DRIER AIR INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...REDUCED POPS AND INCREASED
POPS TUES/WED FOR THE NW PLATEAU REGION. ON THE CONTRARY...FEEL THAT
MODELS ARE UNDER-ESTIMATING QPF FOR TUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SW MOUNTAINS.
MIDNIGHT SHIFT PAINTED A GOOD PICTURE IN THE GRIDS AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES APPEAR TO CONCUR.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NE PLAINS TUES NIGHT/WED. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN COMBINATION WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THIS REGION. HOW
ACTIVE WILL IT BECOME IS THE MAIN QUESTION. SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...SO BUMPED TEMPS DOWN
A HAIR FOR THE NE ZONES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 062/092 060/094 063 46411
GALLUP.................... 054/086 054/090 057 46422
GRANTS.................... 054/085 055/089 057 46422
GLENWOOD.................. 061/089 060/093 067 46422
CHAMA..................... 048/079 048/081 049 46433
LOS ALAMOS................ 054/084 056/086 057 46433
RED RIVER................. 045/074 043/074 046 46333
TAOS...................... 053/085 051/086 052 46333
SANTA FE.................. 057/087 058/086 057 46322
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 059/088 059/089 059 46322
ESPANOLA.................. 059/090 059/091 060 46322
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 065/091 068/092 068 46322
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 065/092 068/092 068 46322
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 063/089 066/089 066 46322
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 064/091 067/091 067 46322
SOCORRO................... 063/093 064/094 066 46322
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 057/084 059/084 059 46333
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 056/087 058/088 060 46322
CARRIZOZO................. 061/091 062/092 063 46322
RUIDOSO................... 059/083 060/084 061 46333
RATON..................... 055/087 055/087 055 46322
LAS VEGAS................. 056/086 055/086 055 46322
ROY....................... 059/091 060/089 059 46322
CLAYTON................... 064/094 065/091 063 46222
SANTA ROSA................ 063/096 064/095 063 46211
TUCUMCARI................. 068/099 068/097 067 46111
FORT SUMNER............... 066/098 065/097 065 46211
CLOVIS.................... 066/095 067/095 067 46201
PORTALES.................. 066/096 067/096 066 46201
ROSWELL................... 069/098 069/098 068 46211
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46/DPORTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON AUG 2 2004

NMZ001>021-026-031200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
545 AM MDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH COULD
OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
MOSTLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD. HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GB