Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MDT TUE JUL 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE WX PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
WE TRANSITION TO A LESS ACTIVE/WARMER SCENARIO LATE WEEK INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. IN FACT...THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE OUR LAST
DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS COURTESY OF A SERIES OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE END RESULT
WILL BE A RATHER BAGGY 700-500 MB TROUGH EAST OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. A PRETTY ATYPICAL PATTERN FOR LATE
JULY.

THE FIRST OF THESE UPPER WAVES WAS SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS DETECTED BY THE AZTEC
PROFILER AT THE 400-500 MB LEVEL. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY...ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BACK TOWARD THE ARIZONA STATE LINE. SPC
SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND COULD EASILY SEE THIS
EXPANDED INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS THEY ROLL
SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFFECTING THE RGV AMONG OTHER WESTERN
VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS SHIFT ADJUSTED POPS
TO HIGH END SCATTERED RANGE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. DID RAISE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AREA AND EASTERN HIGH PLAINS FOR EARLY TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 1/2 INCH OR LESS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER. FOCUS FOR MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER BY WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO SCATTERED RANGE THERE GIVEN NWLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
MAY NEED TO BEEF UP POPS ACROSS THE EC PLAINS NEXT SHIFT.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST. WARMING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR MAY EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MANY AREAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL READINGS FOR A CHANGE.

WEEKEND LOOKING RATHER UNEVENTFUL. ECMWF SHOWS MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED
A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. FOR NOW...LOW GRADE POPS FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST AND NORTH.   KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 080/057 087/057 090 41541
GALLUP.................... 077/051 084/052 086 41541
GRANTS.................... 076/052 083/052 085 41541
GLENWOOD.................. 080/056 085/059 089 41553
CHAMA..................... 071/040 075/043 077 41552
LOS ALAMOS................ 075/050 078/051 081 41552
RED RIVER................. 066/038 068/037 070 41553
TAOS...................... 075/048 078/047 082 41452
SANTA FE.................. 075/052 079/053 083 41551
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 077/055 083/055 086 41451
ESPANOLA.................. 079/053 085/055 087 41451
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 081/061 087/065 088 41441
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 084/058 090/064 091 41441
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 079/059 085/063 086 41551
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 083/062 088/064 089 41441
SOCORRO................... 084/062 090/061 091 41451
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 075/057 079/056 083 41552
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 079/053 084/052 086 41553
CARRIZOZO................. 082/058 089/055 090 41351
RUIDOSO................... 072/055 079/052 080 41452
RATON..................... 077/051 077/050 081 41453
LAS VEGAS................. 075/050 077/052 081 41553
ROY....................... 079/053 078/054 082 41443
CLAYTON................... 082/056 081/059 083 41233
SANTA ROSA................ 085/058 087/060 086 41453
TUCUMCARI................. 085/061 088/063 088 41232
FORT SUMNER............... 084/060 087/061 088 41242
CLOVIS.................... 083/062 088/063 089 41232
PORTALES.................. 083/062 089/063 090 41232
ROSWELL................... 081/064 089/066 094 41342
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1030 AM MDT TUE JUL 27 2004

NMZ001>021-026-281200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
1030 AM MDT TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS PRODUCING HAIL AROUND PENNY SIZE OR
LARGER ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  SIMILAR TO
THE PAST TWO DAYS...A NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL CARRY THE STORMS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. BY TONIGHT...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAVORED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS A
WARMER AND LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS AREAWIDE THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. AS WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY...REMEMBER TO ALWAYS
USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING
PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN NOON AND 900 PM
MDT...OVER SAN JUAN...WESTERN RIO ARRIBA...MCKINLEY AND CIBOLA
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
ELSEWHERE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
ALBUQUERQUE PLEASE CALL 1-888-386-7637.