Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT TOWARDS SRN CO BY MON. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW WHERE A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR
STRETCHED FROM SRN CA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. STORMS ARE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW...SO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN ARROYOS
AND LOW-LYING ROADS WITHIN/NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BE A CONCERN.
WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH FLS/FLW PRODUCTS WHEN NECESSARY. 500MB FLOW
TURNS NE/E BY EARLY EVE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...THUS EXPECT STORMS
TO HAVE SOME WLY COMPONENT. ADDITIONALLY...MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
NEARLY VERTICAL IN NATURE...REDUCING THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WX. PRECIP STATEWIDE SHOULD DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY BY MIDNIGHT...
HOWEVER WILL HOLD A LOW POP THROUGH MORNING W OF THE HIGH PLAINS.

TROPICAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH TRACKING INTO S CENTRAL TX WITH A THIN
BAND OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN ADVANCE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE WAKE
OF DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD...BUT BRUNT OF PLUME SHOULD
REMAIN S OF FA. WITH E/W RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER S CO...DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF FA EARLY THIS WEEK.
IN RESPONSE...MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO AZ/WRN NM. DRIER
MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN ZONES...WHICH
COULD ULTIMATELY CUT OFF PCPN CHANCES. NEIGHBORING OFFICE TO THE E
HAVE AGREED AND THEREFORE HAVE PULLED POPS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS MON
THRU WED.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO REMAINDER OF THE INHERITED FORECAST.
CENTER OF UPPER HIGH SLIDES INTO UT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. SFC FRONT
WILL TRACK S ALONG CO FRONT RANGE AND STALL OUT OVER NE NM. THIS
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A THREAT FOR PCPN
STARTING THU FOR NE PLAINS.

TWEAKED TEMPS THROUGH DAY SEVEN A MAXIMUM OF PLUS/MINUS TWO DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 059/094 059/093 059 46112
GALLUP.................... 053/090 053/090 054 46112
GRANTS.................... 055/089 055/089 056 46222
GLENWOOD.................. 064/092 066/091 067 46223
CHAMA..................... 048/084 048/084 049 46233
LOS ALAMOS................ 054/086 055/086 055 46222
RED RIVER................. 044/079 044/079 045 46322
TAOS...................... 051/087 051/087 051 46222
SANTA FE.................. 056/087 056/089 056 46213
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 058/089 058/089 058 46212
ESPANOLA.................. 059/090 058/090 059 46212
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 066/091 067/091 068 46212
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 064/094 067/094 067 46212
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 064/089 064/088 064 46213
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 065/092 065/093 065 46212
SOCORRO................... 064/095 064/093 064 46212
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 058/087 058/085 057 46312
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 055/090 058/090 057 46212
CARRIZOZO................. 065/091 063/092 062 46322
RUIDOSO................... 058/081 058/082 059 46322
RATON..................... 054/091 054/091 054 46211
LAS VEGAS................. 054/087 054/088 055 46211
ROY....................... 058/090 059/090 059 46111
CLAYTON................... 062/092 062/093 063 46100
SANTA ROSA................ 062/093 063/094 062 46211
TUCUMCARI................. 065/096 065/096 065 46100
FORT SUMNER............... 065/095 065/095 064 46200
CLOVIS.................... 064/094 064/094 065 46100
PORTALES.................. 065/095 065/095 065 46100
ROSWELL................... 066/096 067/096 068 46200
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46/DPORTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 11 2004

NMZ001>021-026-121200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CONTINUING WEST TO THE ARIZONA BORDER.
LOCAL FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AS WELL AS RAPID RISES IN STREAMS AND
NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS ARE POSSIBLE.  ALSO...GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NO SPECIFIC
AREA IS AT RISK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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