Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE STATE. UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA YESTERDAY HAS DRIFTED INTO
OLD MEXICO AND HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH ON WATER VAPOR.
DISTURBANCE PROJECTED TO TRACK OVER E AZ AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
HAMPERING INCOMING SOLAR OVER THE SW PART OF THE STATE THIS AM...
HOWEVER CLOUD DECK IS SHIFTING N. COULD SEE A DECENT CROP OF STORMS
OVER THE GILA/W MTNS AS WELL AS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER THE SACRAMENTO/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND
WILL DRIFT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DRY LINE BACKED INTO E NM LAST
NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF JUICE IN THE WAKE AS DEW POINTS ROSE TO THE
MIDDLE 60S. SIDED WITH THE ETA AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS ALONG A LINE
FROM GUADALUPE TO CHAVES COUNTIES. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
THE MIDWEST WHICH IS TRACKING THROUGH W TX/OK PANHANDLES. WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE STATE...STEERING FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...AS FLOODING
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG E TX COASTLINE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W. THIS FEATURE SHALL CONTINUE ITS PATH INTO TX...BECOMING
MORE DIFFUSE BY THE TIME AS IT UNDERCUTS RIDGE. MODELS STILL HAVING
SOME DIFFICULTY PROJECTING ITS STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST
POPS THIS WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL/W CWA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS COULD KEEP THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE W FA. WILL SEE
REPEAT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE STORMS EACH DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIDING
WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE IN AREAS WERE THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
LOCATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 060/089 059/090 060 46222
GALLUP.................... 053/085 052/087 051 46322
GRANTS.................... 053/084 053/087 052 46323
GLENWOOD.................. 059/089 064/090 064 46333
CHAMA..................... 047/079 047/079 048 46233
LOS ALAMOS................ 053/080 055/084 056 46223
RED RIVER................. 045/072 043/075 044 46233
TAOS...................... 049/082 050/083 051 46223
SANTA FE.................. 055/082 055/084 056 46323
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 057/085 057/087 058 46323
ESPANOLA.................. 057/087 058/089 059 46223
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 066/089 067/091 066 46323
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 065/090 067/092 066 46323
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 064/087 064/089 063 46323
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 065/089 065/091 064 46323
SOCORRO................... 064/090 064/091 064 46323
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 057/081 057/083 057 46333
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 055/085 054/086 054 46323
CARRIZOZO................. 062/086 063/089 064 46333
RUIDOSO................... 059/078 061/082 062 46333
RATON..................... 053/085 053/087 054 46323
LAS VEGAS................. 054/083 053/085 054 46323
ROY....................... 058/086 057/087 057 46323
CLAYTON................... 063/089 062/090 062 46322
SANTA ROSA................ 061/091 062/092 061 46422
TUCUMCARI................. 066/093 067/093 066 46322
FORT SUMNER............... 065/094 066/092 065 46422
CLOVIS.................... 065/092 064/091 064 46322
PORTALES.................. 065/092 065/092 065 46322
ROSWELL................... 069/093 066/092 065 46422
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46/DPORTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 PM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

NMZ001>021-026-101200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
347 AM MDT FRI JUL 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT OF RISING WATER
IN LOCAL ARROYOS AND POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE GILA AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT OF
RISING WATER IN LOCAL ARROYOS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

46/DPORTER