Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MONSOON MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY THEN UP
THROUGH EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY EARLY IN
THE COMING WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND CONVECTION WAS
GETTING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE 18Z
ETA DOES PICK UP ON THIS BRINGS HIGHER 850 MB-700 MB THETA E VALUES
INTO EASTERN CLARK COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY COULD GET CLIPPED BY A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE INTO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR A RETURN OF
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND
UP INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY. INCREASED
COVERAGE OF POPS ACCORDINGLY. TUESDAY COULD GET INTERESTING AS THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW MOVING UP
THROUGH EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE
AREA A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND PROBABLY INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
A LITTLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO LOWER WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP.
&&

.LONG TERM...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
WESTERLY AND APPEARS TO DRY OUT MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD AROUND AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRY WESTERLY FLOW ON INTO SATURDAY. NOT SURE
HOW LOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A FAVORABLE MONSOON PATTER FOR OUR AREA
AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&

.LAS...NONE.
&&

ADAIR

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ026>029-NVZ013>022-241400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN
NEVADA/NORTHWEST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM CALIENTE TO NEEDLES...BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT
FAVOR SEVERE STORMS OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS...AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARSTOW TO
CALIENTE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS OR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING.