Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH PRESS OVER DAKOTAS WITH FLAT PRESS
GRAD OVER CWFA. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DESPITE WELL
MIXED BNDRY LAYER WHICH COULD STILL PICK UP WINDS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE SD PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME CU OVER NW
SD AND WRN ND AS WELL AS TSTMS ANCHORED OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND BIG
HORNS. KUDX RADAR INDC FEW STRONG TSTMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS MOVING
LITTLE...BUT OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

12 MODELS INITIALIZE VERY WELL AND SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60
HOURS. MINOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ETA AND AVN WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER ERN MN SUNDAY IN THE 06Z RUN...WAS RESOLVED BY THE AVN
COMING BACK INTO AGREEMENT AT 12Z.

TONIGHT WILL SEE CONVECTIVE STORMS GENERALLY TIED TO TOPOGRAPHY.
WILL ANTICIPATE SCT TSTMS COMING OFF THE BIG HORNS AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS ERN MT/ERN WY. CONVECTION OVER BLACK HILLS
WILL REMAIN NRLY STATIONARY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL STORM BREAKING FREE
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A NEIGHBORING STORM AND AFFECTING THE
SD PLAINS. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. HAVE GONE WITH SCT TSTMS NE WY AND BLACK HILLS WITH ISOLD
WORDING WRN SD PLAINS.

UPPER PATTERN THOUGH DAY 7 WILL SEE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CENT
U.S....WITH GENERALLY WEAK RIDGING OVER LEE ROCKIES/WRN EDGE OF NRN
PLAINS. PERIODIC WEAK S/WVS WILL MOVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND
THROUGH THIS RIDGE. DONT SEE ANY PARTICULARLY STRONG
WAVES...HOWEVER GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER ERN ZONES WILL SUPPORT WEAK
WAVES ENHANCING DIURNAL CONVECTION. WILL CARRY DAILY CHC POPS FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVE SHRA/TSTMS AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE
MOISTURE HANG AROUND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIODS. GOOD SFC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA WEDNESDAY...COOLING TEMPS A BIT
WED AND KEEPING THU PRETTY MUCH THE ONLY DRY DAY IN THE FORECAST.

WILL ALSO SEE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. WILL
SEE TEMPS INTO THE 80S...EXCEPT FOR WED WITH CAA.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOKS REASONABLE. HAVE NOT
VEERED MUCH.

.UNR...NONE.

99

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-141300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
637 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE...BUT SOME MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND IN AND AROUND THE BLACK HILLS.

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