Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
215 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2003

MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PD IS PRECIP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
THEN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TMRW. ETA A LTL MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS WITH TIMING OF UPR LOW KICKING OUT OVERNIGHT AND WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  BASED ON SAT AND RADAR...LKS LIKE THE SLIGHTLY FASTER ETA
HAS A BTR HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. EXPECT SCT TSMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SD. MAY SEE A
FEW SVR STORMS OVER THE S CTRL WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS. NO CLOUDS
TO SPEAK OF BEHIND THIS UPR LO...SO EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF CWA. WITH LT WINDS AS
WELL...EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. TMRW SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 90S WITH SOME 100S
POSSIBLE NEAR KPHP. EXPECT LOW DEW POINTS AS WELL AS FLOW WILL BE
W-SE AND TURN NW AT 15-30 MPH WITH COLD FRONT. WITH COMBINATION
WINDS...WARM TEMPS AND LOW RHS WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR ALL
FIRE ZNS TMRW AND TMRW EVE. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLD TSMS OVER FAR NW AND
NE WY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AS WELL AS INSTABILITY.

BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. RDG REBUILDS BY FRI OVER WRN SD
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR FRI AND SAT...BUT AS
RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E...MOIST SWLY FLOW SETS BACK UP OVER AREA
AND COULD SEE SOME SHWRS AND TSMS SAT OVER NE WY AND FAR WRN SD.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED FOR MON WHICH COULD
BRING A CHC FOR STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AS ZNL FLOW SETS UP.

.UNR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NE WY...BLACK HILLS AND BADLANDS FOR
WED AFTN AND EVENING.

JMG

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-201231-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
723 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.