Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1250 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2003

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOW TROF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF
CWA...WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROF...WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
15 J/KG. SOME THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...IN AREA OF LEE SIDE CONVERGENCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG THE TROF FOR SOME SUPERCELLS
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

FOR TUESDAY...SHORWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE RIDGE INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA...BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL COOLING TO THE AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

DRY WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S. NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT TO AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

IN THE EXTENDED...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.UNR...NONE.

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-271300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
940 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO...AS A
COUPLE OF FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.