Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST MON JUL 28 2003

.SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTION TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 2 AM...SHOWED THIS DISTURBANCE OVER NEW
MEXICO BOOT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. SHEAR PROFILES NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY...BUT GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED
STORMS. ACTIVITY STARTING OFF MUCH EARLIER THAN SUNDAY AND MOVEMENT
OF STORMS A BIT FASTER ALSO. STILL THINK THAT DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR
MOVING INTO EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW
SCATTERED VARIETY. BEST THREAT WILL BE FROM TUCSON WEST WHERE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILE EXISTS ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ARES. STORMS
THAT FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LIKE THE RIM...WILL HAVE NOT
PROBLEM MARCHING DOWN INTO THE DESERT. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING THIS. BEST AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
FROM TUCSON WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AMOUNT OF RAIN IN CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE LED TO RISES
ON VAMORI WASH WHERE WATERS ARE NOW OVER BANKFUL. ISSUED SMALL
STREAM FLOOD WARNING EARLIER TODAY...FIRST UNTIL 4 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO EXTEND IT UNTIL 10 PM. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
RAINFALL TOTALS TO SEE IT THE WARNING WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.
STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST WILL CONTINUE UFN.

THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: ON JULY 28 1952...A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL...HIT THE COMMUNITIES OF
SAINT DAVID AND BENSON IN COCHISE COUNTY. HIGH WINDS DAMAGED CROPS...
BUILDINGS AND LIVESTOCK. HAIL AVERAGED ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...WITH
THE LARGEST STONES UP TO TWO INCHES. HAIL WAS REPORTED TO BE 3 TO 10
INCHES DEEP.

.TWC...SMALL STREAM FLOOD WARNING FOR ZONE 31 (VAMORI WASH)
       UNTIL 10 PM MST TONIGHT.

AZZ019-029>035-291400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1130 PM MST MON JUL 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...THE DESERTS ARE MOIST AND PRIME FOR STORMS TODAY IF
ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING CAN OVERCOME SOME COOLING THEY HAD LAST NIGHT
FROM STORMS. TUCSON AND WEST SEEMS THE LIKELY AREA FOR THE STRONGEST
STORMS TODAY. THE EAST IS STILL RATHER DRY AND WILL BE INACTIVE
DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH MODELS HINT AT OVERNIGHT STORMS PUSHING OUT
OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...DRY AIR STILL IN EASTERN ZONES AND THAT SHOULD KEEP
THAT AREA DOWN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX DEVELOPING
IN NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTH OF DOUGLAS WILL PUSH INTO COCHISE COUNTY
LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD UP TOWARDS TUCSON OVERNIGHT.

TUCSON AND WEST...MODELS SHOW BIG DAY WITH STORMS ON RIM MOVING WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN TUCSON VALLEY AND MERGING WITH
RIM STORMS THEN JUST RUNNING ACROSS THE LOW DESERTS. ONLY NEGATIVE
FACTOR TO THIS SOLUTION IS THE REALLY COOLED PHOENIX SOUNDING. BUT
THIS MAY NOT BE VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENTIRE VALLEY OUT THERE
AND MIXING DURING THE DAY MAY EVEN THE CAPE OUT SOME. SO SEVERE WISE
EXPECTING AN UP DAY. AS FOR HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
TERRIFIC RAINFALL RATES LAST FEW DAYS...AND EVEN WITH FAST MOTION OF
STORMS ITS EASY TO GET AN INCH OF RAIN.

THEREFORE...BOTH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS AND ONE INCH RAIN IS
HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY TODAY FROM TUCSON WEST...SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY EAST OF TUCSON ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF STORMS
LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN COCHISE COUNTY.

MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST AT 15 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A STANDARD SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM SEASON FORECAST. EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.