Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM MORNING DISCUSSION. AS WAS STATED
IN MORNING AFD...LAST NIGHT WAS A BUSY NIGHT (WITH AROUND 40000
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SONORA MEXICO)...AND
TONIGHT COULD BE A REPEAT WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LASTING LONGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS (APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS)...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. UPPER AIR PLOTS THIS MORNING SHOWED
AN UPPER HIGH CENTER NEAR ABQ...AN UPPER TROF OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST...AND AN INVERTED TROF (EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO) WHICH IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST. IN ADDITION...300 MB PLOTS SHOW JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS BIG BEND NE INTO OKLAHOMA. COOLER AIR ALOFT (-8C TO -9C) IS
ALSO SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO TEXAS. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED JET STREAK HAS KICKED OFF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR EL PASO THIS
MORNING. DYNAMICS FROM THIS FEATURE IS HELPING INITIATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AZ/NM BORDER WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER DIVERGENT
FIELD OVER SONORA MEXICO...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER MCS THERE
TONIGHT. HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT MOST
AREAS. WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS
AND BOTH 10KM/30KM MM5...INDICATING SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN
1-2 INCHES TONIGHT. THUS HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF SE
ARIZONA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ALSO...HAD A STATE CONFERENCE CALL WITH SPC
ON THEM HOISTING A SEVERE WEATHER BOX. THIS BOX WILL COVER ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UNTIL 9 PM.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER UP DAY...THIS DUE TO
APPROACHING INVERTED TROF IN TEXAS. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THAT
THIS FEATURE IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED...ABOUT 15
MPH...AND WOULD BE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL TURN THE UPPER STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUS ALLOWING STORMS ON THE RIM TO PROPAGATE DOWN INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE
STANDARD MONSOON WORDING.

.TWC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 MIDNIGHT FOR ALL PUBLIC ZONES
       EXCEPT ZONE 19 AND 31.

AZZ019-029>035-271400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1205 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 400 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN GRAHAM...COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...SOUTHERN
GREENLEE...SOUTHERN PINAL AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIMA...

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
RESULTING IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTY BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD FURTHER WEST INTO SOUTHERN PINAL...CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS PUSHING WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND AN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AT IT LIES IN A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN
GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD FURTHER
WEST INTO SOUTHERN PINAL...CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOVEMENT
OF THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...THEY WILL
STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH. THEREFORE...THE PROBABILITY FOR RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH TODAY WILL BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN THE FORM OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...SEASONAL
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE NORMAL
IMPLIED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE LATEST WEATHER BULLETINS:
                         AWIPS ID       WMO ID
FLASH FLOOD WATCH        PHXFFATWC      WGUS65 KTWC

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RASMUSSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
100 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0740 PM    WILLCOX                   AZ   WIND DAMAGE
07/25/03   COCHISE                        40 POWER POLES DOWNED. 7
                                          TRAILERS DESTROYED. MANY
                                          OTHERS DAMANGED. REPORTED
                                          BY EMERGENCY MANAGER