Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 23, 2003, 6:30 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 23, 2003, 6:30 PM MST (01:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 23, 2003, 7:00 PM MST
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Pima County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 30 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1131 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -18 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3204 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 104 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
005 WUUS55 KTWC 240130 SVRTWC AZC019-240200- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 630 PM MST WED JUL 23 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IN ARIZONA * UNTIL 700 PM MST * AT 630 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF THREE POINTS...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. PUT YOUR VEHICLE IN A GARAGE OR CARPORT AND MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER. LAT...LON 3196 11116 3211 11104 3223 11125 3206 11136
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 23, 3:05 PM MST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 3:05 PM MST, 3 hours 25 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 305 PM MST WED JUL 23 2003 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEVADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. .DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN 40 DBZ ECHOES MAINLY NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY NWWD AT 2140Z. CELL E BENSON APPROACHED 60 KG/M2 WORTHY OF SEVERE TSTM WARNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL/ERN LOCALES. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S F ERN SECTIONS WHILE REMAINING AROUND 60 F TUS VICINITY WWD. BELIEVE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE TOWARD VALLEYS. BEST CHANCE PRECIP TUS VICINITY SHOULD BE AFTER 01-02Z OR SUCH PER LATEST MESO-ETA/MM5 OUTPUT. WILL OPT FOR SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXPECTATION OF ACTIVITY WANING EARLY ERN SECTIONS THOUGH PERHAPS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL LOCALES. ONLY ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ZONES 31/32. 23/12Z NWP MODELS WERE WELL INITIALIZED PER PMDHMD. ETA/GFS CONCUR THAT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR THUR AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY H5-H3 OMEGA/DIVERGENCE/TOTAL DEFORMATION FIELDS. THUS WILL TREND POPS UPWARD MAINLY THUR EVENING TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH TO MOVE TOWARD SRN CO BY SAT. AVN DEPICTS INVERTED TROF TO ROTATE AROUND SE PERIPHERY OF HIGH ACROSS TX SAT AND TOWARD SE AZ BY SUN. PER COORD WITH WFO/S PSR/FGZ WILL ADJUST POPS UPWARD SUN AND TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY MON AS SYSTEM MOVES WWD. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO GFS/MRF TUE-WED SOLUTION PERTAINING TO SWRN CONUS/NRN BAJA TROF. SO WILL MAINTAIN GENERIC POP SCENARIO FOR THE MOMENT. WILL TREND DAYTIME MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD STARTING FRI WITH EXPECTATION THAT SUN WILL BE COOLEST DAY GIVEN PROGGED PRECIPITATION. BF .TWC...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 12:30 PM MST, 6 hours before
AZZ019-029>035-241400- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1230 PM MST WED JUL 23 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA .DAY ONE...TODAY SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT COOLED THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH GENERALLY LEADS TO LESS ACTIVITY ON THE FOLLOWING DAY. THIS SHOULD CONFINE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING. NUMERICAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. .DISCUSSION...TUCSON SOUNDING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS COOLED SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY PHOENIX SOUNDING WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR ABLE TO SUPPORT SURFACED BASED STORMS. THE ONLY FACTOR THAT MAY PUSH STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS IS FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR SO. FIRST STORMS WILL DEVELOP...RAIN...AND MOVE OFF MOUNTAINS AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER THEY MOVE INTO VALLEYS. BY EVENING...STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE STORMS WILL PUSH MUCH FARTHER OUT IN THE DESERTS THAN MARANA...BUT THE TUCSON VALLEY AS WELL AS THE I-19 CORRIDOR SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A STANDARD SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM SEASON FORECAST. EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 23, 5:21 PM MST, 1 hour 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
0521 PM MST WED JUL 23 2003
TIME(MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0430 PM ORACLE AZ 0.75 IN HAIL
07/23/03 PINAL
VPHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 6:30 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | |
| Jul 24, 3:04 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 41 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.