Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
636 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN AN
UPDRAFT...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
NOWATA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES HAS DISSIPATED. LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A
CAPPING STABLE LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS HELPED
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT EVEN THIS ACTIVITY HAD
BEGUN TO WEAKEN SINCE 530 PM.

WEAK ELEVATION CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE NEAR THE RED RIVER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ALSO SHOWN AN OVERALL
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE PAST 2 HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED ACROSS SEMINOLE AND WESTERN OKFUSKEE
COUNTIES.

WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
POSSIBLE ZONE AND GRID UPDATE BY 9 PM. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
WE MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS IN SOME AREAS.

WITH STRONG CONVECTION NEARBY...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR CRAIG AND OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL ITS EXPIRATION AT 8 PM.

FORECAST ID= 9

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
105 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NORTH OF
A TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE...

A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. SOME OF
THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
NORTH OF A TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ057>058-290100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
177 UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 OTTAWA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MIAMI AND VINITA.