Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
958 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AS AN AREA
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH LI VALUES COMPUTED
FROM 850MB OF -5 TO -7 MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE LIFT FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRODUCED BY A 45 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT BEING PROVIDED BY DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH SOME
DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FORECAST ID = 10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY AND LATER FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR DETAILED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE
WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ065-066-240330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
936 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR OKMULGEE AND OKFUSKEE
   COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 936 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTH OF BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF OKEMAH...BEARDEN...CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH...CASTLE...
OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...HENRYETTA AND SCHULTER WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM THROUGH 1030 PM CDT.

OKZ049-053-060-064>076-240800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1003 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
152 UNTIL 300 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CREEK                 OKMULGEE
TULSA                 WAGONER

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAYTON...EUFAULA...HUGO...MCALESTER...MUSKOGEE...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...POTEAU...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...STILWELL...
TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.