Severe Thunderstorm Warning 407, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
325 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

SFC LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OKC WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
MEDFORD...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR ALTUS.  MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS
SHIFTED EAST THIS MORNING.   STILL EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...AS 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH.  BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF FA BY
MID AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN DWPT DISTRIBUTIONS FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL.

SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF AREA.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES/SATURATED GROUND.  NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.  DID BUMP UP TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALSO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    64   41   66   45 /  50   10    0    5
FSM    70   42   65   42 /  60   30    0    5
MLC    66   40   66   43 /  50   10    0    5
BVO    62   36   64   38 /  40   10    0    5
FYV    64   41   60   39 /  60   30    0    5
BYV    64   40   61   43 /  60   30    0    5
MKO    64   41   66   42 /  60   10    0    5
MIO    61   39   62   42 /  60   10    0    5
F10    64   40   66   43 /  50   10    0    5
HHW    69   43   66   45 /  50   10    0    5

FORECAST ID= 12

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.