Severe Thunderstorm Warning 406, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
335 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
SITUATED OVER WESTERN OK THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AS SWLY UPPER JET PLACES
BULLSEYE OF TREMENDOUS DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY. WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CONVECTION IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL INHIBIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY IN SPITE OF IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AS WE MAY
HAVE TROUBLE REALIZING SIGNIFICANT SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AS TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE INTO MID-UPPER 60S. COULD SEE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT
WITH THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.

FEEL THAT BIGGER PROBLEM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AS DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP H2O
VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES. FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD AND
FFG VALUES ARE HIGH...SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WET BULB ZEROES DROP DOWN TO APPROX
8KFT WITH COOLING ALOFT UNDER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. COULD SEE A
BIGGER HAIL THREAT AS A RESULT. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

UPPER TROUGH WITH COLD POCKET WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. TIGHT
SFC GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT FOR BREEZY NW WINDS. WILL ALSO ADD A
CHANCE OF THUNDER TO FAR NE OK AND NW ARK AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
PRESENT UNDER COLD POOL AND AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW.

WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS GOOD WED-SAT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED WITH POTENTIAL DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. NEXT WEEKEND. 00Z GFS LOOKS RATHER OMINOUS WITH
DEEP SFC LOW IN LEE OF ROCKIES SAT/SUN. NO CHANGES TO DAYS 3-7.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    68   48   61   42 / 100   60   20    0
FSM    68   53   63   42 / 100  100   20    0
MLC    69   53   64   44 / 100   80   10    0
BVO    68   46   59   38 / 100   60   30    0
FYV    66   53   58   37 / 100  100   30    0
BYV    65   50   57   36 / 100  100   40    0
MKO    69   52   62   42 / 100   80   20    0
MIO    66   51   58   38 / 100   80   30    0
F10    69   51   63   43 / 100   70   10    0
HHW    70   54   66   46 / 100   90    5    0

FORECAST ID= 14

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SULLIVAN

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW STORMS HOWEVER COULD BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.  RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ049-053>068-070>071-073>075-171900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
803 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #948 UNTIL 100
PM CST MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 22 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CRAIG                 CREEK                 DELAWARE
MAYES                 NOWATA                OKMULGEE
OSAGE                 OTTAWA                PAWNEE
ROGERS                TULSA                 WAGONER
WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG             PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN
ARROW...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...HUGO...JAY...MCALESTER...
MIAMI...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...
PRYOR...SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VINITA...WAGONER
AND WILBURTON.

OKZ054-059-171530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
826 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 930 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE

AT 826 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
WEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...SHIDLER...FAIRFAX...
BURBANK...PAWNEE AND RALSTON.

A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN OSAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 930 AM CST.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.