Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 13, 2003Osage County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 13, 2003, 8:37 PM CDT for Osage County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 13, 2003, 8:37 PM CDT (01:37 UTC)
Expired
Oct 13, 2003, 9:15 PM CDT
In force
38 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Osage County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Oct 13, 5:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-10-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 9 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-10-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 217 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-133 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
610 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
217 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
293 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 140137
SVRTUL
OKC113-140215-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
836 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 836 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2
  MILES NORTH OF PEARSONIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PEARSONIA...
  BIGHEART AND HULAH.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED 
IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE 
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3689 9655 3673 9644 3705 9565 3726 9580

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 13, 6:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 13, 6:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before
MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
645 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2003

AT 645 PM A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY TO WICHITA TO JUST WEST OF ENID. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH STEADILY SOUTHEAST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER IS DIVING SOUTHEAST. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS RESULTING
IN RAPID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KANSAS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. VERY FAVORABLE UPPER
DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS.

CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND WILL ALSO BUILD
FURTHER SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
INCREASE BY 8 PM TO THE NORTHWEST OF TULSA AND BY 10 PM AS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST AS MUSKOGEE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL INITIALLY
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE BUT WITH TIME WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 13, 6:00 AM CDT, 14 hours 37 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING.  THIS MOISTURE CAN BE
EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  THIS MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
ACTED ON BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MISSOURI.  THIS UPPER
SUPPORT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT MAY FORM A SQUALL LINE.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT ROUGHLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF A PONCA
CITY TO TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.  TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD FAVOR
ACTIVITY IN THE MID EVENING HOURS AT TULSA AND AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT FAYETTEVILLE.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF OKLHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 13, 5:09 PM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before
OKZ054>064-066>070-140400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#937 UNTIL 1100 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAREMORE...JAY...MIAMI...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...
PAWNEE...PRYOR...SAND SPRINGS...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VINITA
AND WAGONER.
Special weather statement, Oct 13, 8:06 PM CDT, 31 minutes before
OKZ054-140200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
806 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 806 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BURBANK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BURBANK...SHIDLER...
WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA AND BIGHEART.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE ADVISORY IS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.