Severe Thunderstorm Warning 401, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
210 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

VERY HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN SITE THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TULSA COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY.  DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 105 AND 110 DEG RANGE WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 80 IN THE TULSA METRO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS.

SECOND CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR A TULSA/FYV LINE.  SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LIS RUNNING AROUND -8 DEG C WITH SBCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG.  EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE FRONT
AND FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER TERRAIN.
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A
FEW LARGE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.

BUMPS TEMPS UP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH FROPA...
COOLER TEMPS INTO SATURDAY (HOPEFULLY).

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    79  103   80  103 /  20   10   10   10
FSM    75  102   75  102 /  20   20   10   10
MLC    73  100   73  100 /  30   10   10   10
BVO    72  103   72  103 /  10   10   10   10
FYV    70   98   71   98 /  20   10   10   10
BYV    70   96   70   96 /  20   20   10   10
MKO    73  102   73  102 /  30   10   10   10
MIO    70  102   72  101 /  20   10   10   10
F10    73  100   73  100 /  30   10   10   10
HHW    73   98   74   98 /  30   10   10   10

FORECAST ID= 12

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY FOR ZONE OKZ060.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER LINE.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
IN ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH 70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

THE SPELL OF VERY HOT WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN RUN IN THE 104 TO 110
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HOT AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK
BY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0315 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0550 PM    2 S WISTER                OK   0.75 IN HAIL
08/22/03   LE FLORE

0459 PM    2 W TALIHINA              OK   WIND DAMAGE
08/22/03   LE FLORE                       TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          TALIHINA PD

HMN

OKZ049-053-073-232200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
403 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW

AT 403 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARTSHORNE TO CLAYTON TO 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF SOBOL...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...FROGVILLE...FORT
TOWSON...SWINK...SOBOL...HUSKEY...HARTSHORNE...HAILEYVILLE...DOW...
CLAYTON...CORINNE...RATTAN...CLOUDY...FINLEY...SNOW...NASHOBA...
STANLEY...OLETA...DUNBAR AND SARDIS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0416 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0310 PM    HOMINY                    OK   WIND DAMAGE
08/23/03   OSAGE                          SEVERAL BUILDINGS WITH
                                          ROOF DAMAGE. TREES AND
                                          POWER POLES DOWN

0310 PM    HOMINY                    OK   70 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/23/03   OSAGE

HMN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT : CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0426 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0320 PM    HOMINY                    OK   70 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/23/03   OSAGE                          ESTIMATED BY A TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

0310 PM    HOMINY                    OK   WIND DAMAGE
08/23/03   OSAGE                          SEVERAL BUILDINGS WITH
                                          ROOF DAMAGE. TREES AND
                                          POWER POLES DOWN

HMN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0452 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0443 PM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK   0.88 IN HAIL
08/23/03   CHEROKEE                       REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

0435 PM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/23/03   CHEROKEE                       REPORTED BY TAHLEQUAH
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

HMN

OKZ062-067-232300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MAYES AND WAGONER

AT 454 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF MURPHY TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WAGONER...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WAGONER...MAZIE...MURPHY AND
CHOUTEAU.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.