Severe Thunderstorm Warning 373, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF TULSA THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEES SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE DIURNAL HEATING HELPS ERODE THE CAP THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 3500
J/KG AND A LI OF -5. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AS DRY AIR WORKS IN AT THE MID LEVELS. WILL GO 20
POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. I WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
MO/EASTERN KS AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.

IT LOOKS LIKE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES TO THE EAST. WILL LEAVE THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT THE GFS IS HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE MCS MOVING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

TUL   75   99   76   97  / 20   10    5    5
FSM   72   98   72   96  / 20   10   10    5
MLC   73   98   73   97  / 20   10    5    5
BVO   71   99   71   95  / 20   10    5    5
FYV   68   91   68   91  / 40   10   10    5
BYV   68   90   68   90  / 40   10   10    5
MKO   73   98   73   96  / 20   10    5    5
MIO   70   94   70   93  / 20   10   10    5
F10   74   98   72   97  / 20   10    5    5
HHW   73   98   73   98  / 20   10    5    5

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
933 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
WILL MEANDER SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. INTERSECTING SURFACE
BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...COULD INDUCE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...LASTING INTO THE EVENING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT...HOWEVER ONCE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
CLEARS THE REGION THIS MORNING...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BECOME
NEGLIGIBLE AS MID LEVELS REMAIN CAPPED.  THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRALS ARKANSAS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA