Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
305 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003

MORE SUN TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.  BULK OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS HAS STAYED TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BUT THIS MAY CHANGE THIS
EVENING.  A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED IN KANSAS AND THE ETA INDICATES
THAT MORE ARE TO FOLLOW.  WOULD THINK THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT AND THEN A
PRETTY EVEN CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE TOMORROW.  GFS THE PREVIOUS
DAYS HAD RAIN FOCUSED ON A BOUNDARY/FRONT.  THE 12Z GFS AND ETA ARE
MORE IN AGREEMENT OF SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT A WELL DEFINED
FRONT.  MCVS FROM PREVIOUS AND FUTURE CONVECTION ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
PLAY A PART.  GFS MAY SHOW ONE OF THE FEATURES HEADED SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY.  SO HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES THEN WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THIS FEATURE THEN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THINK AFTER THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS
PRETTY QUIET.

ONE NOTE OF INTEREST IS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM I HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE
LAST FEW DAYS WHICH MIGHT HAVE KEPT RAIN IN THE FORECAST TIL
WEDNESDAY.  THE HURRICANCE CENTERS HAVE IT SLOWER THAN THE MODELS
BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THE TRACK IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF US
SO IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER.

TEMP WISE...AS IS THE CASE IN SUMMER IT WILL DEPEND MORE ON CLOUD
COVER AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.  HAVE KEPT TOMORROW
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S DUE TO THE POTENTIAL CLOUDS.  WARMED THINGS UP
SOME AS THE WEEK PROGRESES AND AS EXPECT WILL DRY OUT SOME.

TUL   65   86   66   88  / 40   40   20   20
FSM   64   86   66   88  / 20   40   30   30
MLC   64   87   66   89  / 20   40   30   20
BVO   63   85   65   87  / 50   40   20   20
FYV   60   83   63   85  / 20   40   30   30
BYV   59   83   62   85  / 20   40   40   30
MKO   64   86   66   88  / 30   40   30   20
MIO   61   84   64   86  / 30   40   30   20
F10   65   86   66   88  / 30   40   30   20
HHW   64   88   67   90  / 20   40   30   30

FORECAST ID= 17

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST MAY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEK AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.  EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY
ALSO RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
MIDWEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD
REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA