Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
627 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

SATL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING.  DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE HAS OVERSPREAD MOST ALL OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE FAR
EASTERNMOST COUNTIES.  HAVE MANAGED AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER
OTTAWA COUNTY DURING THE PAST HOUR...OTHERWISE CAP HAS HELD.  STILL
SOME POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN MOST COUNTIES NEXT HOUR OR SO.  FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO THE WEST WHERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL OK IN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.  STORMS TO
THE WEST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD WITH APPROACHING WAVE.  STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COMPLEX LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
WITH WEAK FLOW/SHEAR.  HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AS THE MAIN
THREAT LATER ON.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF A
KANSAS CITY TO WITCHITA TO DODGE CITY LINE.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT AND MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.  AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX THEY SHOULD HEAD
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  EVENTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN AN EVIRONMENT OF LOWER 70S DEW POINTS AND CAPES OF
3000-4000 J/KG.  AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE SEVERE RISK WILL
LESSON AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.
PRECIPITAL WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORHWEST
ARKANSAS SUGGEST FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ058-102315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 546 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AFTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...AFTON...FAIRLAND...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA AND PEORIA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0620 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0605 PM    WYANDOTTE                 OK   0.75 IN HAIL
06/10/03   OTTAWA                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
                                          SMALL TREES LIMBS WERE ALSO
                                          DOWN.

NMK