Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
815 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A HOMINY...ARDMORE LINE.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MOVE NORTHEAST...
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CREEK COUNTY THROUGH 845 PM.  INSTABILITY AXIS
REMAINS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -10 DEG C
OVER OKMULGEE COUNTY...SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER.  SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A PAWNEE...TULSA...POTEAU LINE WITH
THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  GIVEN
THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS HOWEVER...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

SENT UPDATED ZONES TO TAPPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
ALSO CLEARED PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 44...AS LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF
AFOREMENTIONED AREA BY THAT TIME.  NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

FORECAST ID = 12

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK...CORRECTED WORDING
727 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...AND DECREASE
TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE...THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL MINIMIZE THE
TORNADO THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOKS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WILL
SLOW TO EXIT. COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ065-071-073-200300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#204 UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF EUFAULA...MCALESTER AND OKEMAH.

OKZ060>062-064>067-070>071-073-200800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
935 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#416 UNTIL 300 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CREEK                 MAYES                 OKMULGEE
ROGERS                TULSA                 WAGONER

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...CLAREMORE...
EUFAULA...MCALESTER...MUSKOGEE...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PRYOR...SAND
SPRINGS...TULSA AND WAGONER.