Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 25, 2003Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 25, 2003, 2:32 PM CST for Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2003, 2:32 PM CST (20:32 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2003, 3:15 PM CST
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Madison County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 53 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -309 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 873 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

925 
WUUS54 KTSA 252032
SVRTUL
ARC087-252115-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
232 PM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 232 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2
  MILES EAST OF BOSTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PETTIGREW AND
  BOSTON.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3584 9371 3572 9355 3602 9312 3620 9334

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 25, 11:20 AM CST, 3 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 11:20 AM CST, 3 hours 12 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1120 AM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

...UPDATE FOR STORM SCALE TRENDS...

LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING CURRENTLY FROM SOUTH COFFEYVILLE TO HOMINY
IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF 700MB TROUGH PER PROFILER DATA.  LATEST RUC
SHOWS LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BAND HOWEVER DEEP
LAYER SHEER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.  PEA SIZE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ELEMENTS HOWEVER RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WILL PERSIST.

FORECAST ID= 07

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 1:00 PM CST, 1 hour 32 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...100

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...30
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...700 PM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...0/0
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...5
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER... LESS THAN 5

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  DEEP
LAYER SHEER WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS HOWEVER
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LIMITED.  LOW WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINTAIN HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE HOWEVER A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE AND
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THEY WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE LIMITED SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 44.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 25, 11:30 AM CST, 3 hours 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0341 AM    FORAKER                   OK   .88 INCH HAIL
03/25/03   OSAGE                          REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER

0300 AM    1 W BIGCABIN              OK   NON TSTM WIND DAMAGE
03/25/03   CRAIG                          ROOF DAMAGE AND LARGE                                     DAMAGE TO BARN AND LARGE
                                          TREE DOWN...REPORTED BY
                                          BARTLESVILLE EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.