Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
332 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

CONTINUING TO MONITOR STORMS FIRING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN EXTRM
SE OK WHERE ATMOSPHERE HAS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON. SFC
WINDS REMAIN BACKED AND THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT OF ROTATION
IN PUSH AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES NEXT HOUR OR SO. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
COUNTIES OUT OF TORNADO WATCH AS THREAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
STORMS WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OTHERWISE MOST OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A MORE STABLE REGIME
COURTESY OF MCS THAT PASSED OVER THIS MORNING. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO 70S AND LOW
80S. SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING ALONG KANSAS BORDER IN WEAK CONVERGENCE
ZONE...HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TONIGHT.

FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY. SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO 80S...SO
DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH A TOTALLY DRY FORECAST AND WILL AGAIN
INCLUDE 20 POPS EVERYWHERE. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN TO PUSH TEMPS CLOSE
TO FWC/ETA GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

INTERESTING SCENARIO DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POTENT
UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF SW U.S. AND SFC LOW BECOMES ORGANIZED OVER
WEST TX BY THU AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF LOW
WITH ETA TARGETING SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA MORE WITH PRECIP WHILE GFS
TAKES LOW FARTHER NORTH...AND UKMET LYING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. IN
ANY CASE SIGNIFICANT MCS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER SW OK OR
NW TX THU NIGHT AND TRACK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK EXISTS TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CAT IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED IN
LATER FORECASTS.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP COULD AFFECT THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
OTHERWISE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND UNDER AMPLIFYING
RIDGE. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO LATER PERIODS WERE TO BUMP UP HIGHS
ON MON/TUE AHEAD OF NEXT FROPA...WHICH SHOULD BRING COOLER WX ON WED.

TUL   64   83   61   73  / 20   20   50   50
FSM   64   83   60   77  / 20   20   50   50
MLC   64   85   63   78  / 20   20   50   50
BVO   62   81   59   71  / 20   20   50   50
FYV   59   79   57   73  / 20   20   50   50
BYV   60   79   56   71  / 20   20   50   50
MKO   64   83   61   75  / 20   20   50   50
MIO   59   80   58   70  / 20   20   50   50
F10   64   83   61   75  / 20   20   50   50
HHW   66   86   65   81  / 20   20   50   50

FORECAST ID= 14

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM.

THERE WILL BE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL REORGANIZE...HELPING TO ESTABLISH A WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0124 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 PM    13 S HARTSHORNE           OK   1.00 IN HAIL
05/14/03   PITTSBURG                      DIME TO QUARTER HAIL
                                          COVERING GROUND

JDS