Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BUT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEEING QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE SO WILL ADJUST SKY
CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WILL ALSO UP MAXIMUMS A BIT AS A
RESULT.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING THIS MORNING...WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS REMAINING IN A MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. REDEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS ALSO OCCURRED ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.  THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OUTLOOKED AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY IS HIGHER AND
WHERE LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN A MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE. WHILE MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND OUTFLOW MOVES SOUTH INTO TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. LEFTOVER LOCALIZED SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY INITIATE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER
LIMITED LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY KEEP COVERAGE OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS ISOLATED AT BEST.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
FROM SLOWLY MOVING OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME
AREAS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL REORGANIZE...HELPING TO ESTABLISH A WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TULSA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1100 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 AM    7 N KINGSTON              AR   0.75 IN HAIL
05/14/03   MADISON                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1116 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0625 PM    13 E OCTAVIA              OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/13/03   LE FLORE                       TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN NEAR
                                          ZAFRA.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0500 PM    OZARK                     AR   FLASH FLOOD
05/13/03   FRANKLIN                       11TH ST. NEAR HWY 64
                                          TEMPORARILY IMPASSABLE.
                                          REPORTED BY S.O.

0420 PM    VAN BUREN                 AR   0.75 IN HAIL
05/13/03   CRAWFORD                       REPORTED BY NWS EMPLOYEE

0358 PM    5 NW COOKSON              OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/13/03   CHEROKEE                       TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR
                                          HORSESHOE BEND.
                                          REPORTED BY S.O.

0330 PM    TAHLEQUAH                 OK   FLASH FLOOD
05/13/03   CHEROKEE                       SEVERAL BUSINESSES ALONG
                                          MAIN STREET FLOODED.
                                          REPORTED BY STREET
                                          DEPARTMENT

BM