Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
315 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF LOW
LEVEL JET...AND EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ZONES.  STORMS WILL PUSH
OUTFLOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
LOOK LIMITED.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTH...AND 30 POPS OVER THE SOUTH.  MORNING POPS WILL BE ADJUSTED
AT LAST MINUTE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.  BETTER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES IN PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
RATHER HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
THE EAST FOR SATURDAY...BUT UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS NICE.  TEMPS
SHOPULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE BY AROUND TUESDAY.

TUL   78   62   80   60  / 40   10   10   50
FSM   79   60   82   60  / 50   30   20   50
MLC   80   61   82   63  / 80   30   20   50
BVO   77   58   78   59  / 40   10   10   50
FYV   75   55   77   57  / 40   10   10   50
BYV   75   55   77   56  / 40   10   10   50
MKO   79   60   79   62  / 50   10   10   50
MIO   76   56   77   58  / 40   10   10   50
F10   80   61   80   61  / 50   10   10   50
HHW   80   63   83   65  / 80   30   20   50

FORECAST ID= 4

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
   THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...

...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER ALL OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD
MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ARKANSAS FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDESTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE NORTH
OF A PONCA CITY TO TULSA TO FORT SMITH.   THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH THIS
UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS KANSAS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX AS
THEY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH AMPLE LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY...BUT RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA