Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 17, 2003Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 17, 2003, 9:34 PM CST for Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 17, 2003, 9:34 PM CST (03:34 UTC)
Expired: Mar 17, 2003, 10:30 PM CST
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 67 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -132 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1330 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 234 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 486 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

741 
WUUS54 KTSA 180334
SVRTUL
OKC113-117-180430-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
  WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1030 PM CST

* AT 932 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE...A SECOND STORM NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WAS 
LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURBANK...AND A THIRD SEVERE STORM MAY 
MOVE INTO WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY FROM NOBLE COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS  
INCLUDE...PAWNEE...BURBANK AND RALSTON.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. 
STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3616 9699 3613 9682 3678 9642 3685 9669
          3671 9707

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 17, 8:50 PM CST, 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 8:50 PM CST, 44 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
850 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

UPDATED TO DROP MENTION OF SEVERE AND ADJUST POPS.  STILL THINK
THERE MAY BE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT NOT WORTH HIGHLIGHTING IT IN
THE ZONES.  GENERALLY DREW A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST NEAR CURRENT
CONVECTION.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW SHOULD BE GREATER WITH
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WITH A STRONG VORT LOBE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.  KEPT SEVERE WORDING FOR TOMORROW
BUT IT MAY BE MORE LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 17, 5:10 PM CST, 4 hours 24 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

.SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...100

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...80
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...5:00 PM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...10/5
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...10
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...20

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF A LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE THIS EVENING OR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG JET STREAM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO
ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 17, 4:33 PM CST, 5 hours 1 minute before

OKZ054-059-172315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
   UNTIL 515 PM CST...

AT 433 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
WEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES APPERSON...BURBANK...FAIRFAX...LYMAN...MCCORD...
PAWNEE...RALSTON...SKEDEE AND WEBB CITY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM THROUGH 515 PM CST.

Special weather statement, Mar 17, 4:40 PM CST, 4 hours 54 minutes before

OKZ060-054-182330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

...DAMAGE IN TULSA...

AT 435PM SPOTTERS REPORTED DAMAGE IN TULSA NEAR 49TH AND PEORIA.
WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT OF A BUSINESS...ALONG WITH ROOF DAMAGE.

AT 440PM THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND HAS
HAS WEAKENED...BUT GIVEN THAT IT HAS PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT WINDS ...
PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST OSAGE COUNTY SHOULD BE ALERT AND LISTEN FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

Local storm report, Mar 17, 7:27 PM CST, 2 hours 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0727 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0237 PM    1 E BURBANK               OK   0.75 IN HAIL
03/17/03   OSAGE

0201 PM    4 N HOMINY                OK   0.75 IN HAIL
03/17/03   OSAGE

BM

Special weather statement, Mar 17, 9:21 PM CST, 13 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-180515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
921 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS A
THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARY...WHICH AT 9PM EXTENDED FROM NEAR SOUTH
COFFEYVILLE TO JUST WEST OF OKEMAH.  STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
FURTHER ENHANCED AS VERY STRONG JET STREAM WINDS SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT FROM WEST TEXAS.

GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND REMAINING INSTABILITY...A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING.

PERSONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD CHECK TO
SEE THAT THERE WEATHER RADIOS ARE SET TO ALARM AND EXPECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS DURING THE NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 17, 11:23 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.