Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 17, 2003Osage County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 17, 2003, 1:59 PM CST for Osage County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 17, 2003, 1:59 PM CST (19:59 UTC)
Expired: Mar 17, 2003, 3:00 PM CST
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Osage County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 264 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -285 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 965 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 119 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 97 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 171959
SVRTUL
OKC113-172100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
159 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 159 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE 
  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING 2 MILES NORTH OF HOMINY...MOVING 
  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...
  HOMINY...WYNONA...BARNSDALL...OKESA...BIGHEART AND HULAH.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3656 9661 3626 9631 3657 9600 3700 9603

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 17, 10:45 AM CST, 3 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 10:45 AM CST, 3 hours 14 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1045 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. WILL CARRY LOW POPS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY FEEL ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LEFT REST OF
FORECAST AS IS...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.

FORECAST ID= 23

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 17, 1:50 PM CST, 9 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED TO ADD RISK TABLE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...70

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...30
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...2:00 AM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...10/5
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...10
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...20

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL AID IN SUSTAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG JET STREAM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO
ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.