Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
531 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

STILL WAITING TO SEE IF SUPERCELL SOUTH OF STILLWATER WILL TURN
RIGHT AS THE MESOCYCLONE MATURES.

MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAX INSTABILITY AXIS...4000 J/KG...WAS ALONG
A LINE FROM NEAR COFFEYVILLE TO TULSA TO OKEMAH.  WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE INSTABILITY MAX STILL WELL AHEAD OF THE
CELL...WOULD EXPECT THIS STORM TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2
TO 3 HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL SLOWING AND TURN TO THE RIGHT WILL DETERMINE WHERE IN
OUR AREA THE THREAT WILL BE...CURRENT TRACK IS INTO PAWNEE
AND FAR NORTHWEST CREEK COUNTY.

HAVE NOTED THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE TRYING TO BACK SOME AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW DEEPENS IN FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.  THIS BACKING WIND TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND IF IT
DOES IT WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS CELL.

INTERESTS IN PAWNEE AND CREEK COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE TO A HIGH STATE
OF READINESS.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL AID IN THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT A DRY LINE
WILL SHARPEN OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE DUE
TO VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS.  THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR A FEW DAYS TILL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ064>066-100200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #320 UNTIL 900
PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CREEK                 OKMULGEE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BRISTOW...OKEMAH AND OKMULGEE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0354 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0156 AM    GLENPOOL                  OK   0.88 IN HAIL
05/08/03   TULSA

SA

OKZ054>064-067>069-100337-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
437 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 321 UNTIL 1100
PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OSAGE                 OTTAWA                PAWNEE
ROGERS                TULSA                 WAGONER
WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAREMORE...JAY...MIAMI...NOWATA...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...PRYOR...SAND
SPRINGS...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VINITA AND WAGONER.