Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
715 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DISCUSSION...

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL 9 AM CDT. SUPERCELL OVER LEFLORE
COUNTY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN OVER NEXT HOUR. SEVERE
THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...BEST
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WARM FRONT HAS BECOME
RATHER ILL DEFINED BUT LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND TULSA AREA.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS SFC DEW POINTS IN LOW
TO MID 70S THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF CWA. DRY LINE IS PROGGED TO BE INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST...PROBABLY NOT CLEARING THE TULSA METRO. CLOUD COVER IN WAKE OF
MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICK...SO SFC TEMPS
SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING WELL INTO 80S BY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
TEMPS DO CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A STRONG CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK.
FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE SAW
TUESDAY...BUT CERTAINLY GOOD ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH SFC
BASED CAPES UP TO 4000 J/KG ROUGHLY NORTH OF TULSA. SHEAR PROFILES
APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR CELL ROTATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH 45-50KTS
LLJ CONTINUING AT 850 MB.

CAP SHOULD BE BROKEN FAIRLY EASILY OVER NE OK BY CONVERGENCE ALONG
DRY LINE BY APPROX 21Z...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL
OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH. DUE MAINLY TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE PLACED
HIGHEST RISK FOR SVR OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT COULD GET GOING TO THE SOUTH WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE AS WELL.
LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

FORECAST ID = 14

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SULLIVAN

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...

ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW ELEVATED CELLS STILL MAY DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL 7 AM CDT.

CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING AND WILL FURTHER
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DRY LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED EARLY
ON BY CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH MOST LIKELY INITIATION
BY AROUND 4 PM. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE CAP CAN
BE BROKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE VERY
HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS THE DRY LINE
REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT IT
APPEARS A THIS TIME THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED ENOUGH TO
REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY WILL CAUSE THE DRY LINE TO PUSH EAST...
BRINGING YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FINALLY PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THEN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

ARZ001-080915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR BENTON COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM
   CDT...

AT 320 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GENTRY TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
CAVE SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF BENTONVILLE...ROGERS...GENTRY...PEA RIDGE...
SPRINGTOWN...CAVE SPRINGS...DECATUR AND BELLA VISTA WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 415 AM CDT.

OKZ049-053-059>060-064>076-081200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#296 UNTIL 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CREEK                 OKMULGEE
PAWNEE                TULSA                 WAGONER

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BRISTOW...BROKEN ARROW...
CLAYTON...EUFAULA...HUGO...MCALESTER...MUSKOGEE...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...PAWNEE...POTEAU...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...
STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.

OKZ071-081100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR MCINTOSH COUNTY UNTIL 600
   AM CDT...

AT 457 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF STIDHAM...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF CHECOTAH...STIDHAM...PIERCE AND RENTIESVILLE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 600 AM CDT.

ARZ019>020-029-OKZ072-074>076-081400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#298 UNTIL 900 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

HASKELL               LATIMER               LE FLORE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CEDARVILLE...FORT SMITH...MOUNTAINBURG...
NATURAL DAM...OZARK...POTEAU...SALLISAW...STIGLER...VAN BUREN AND
WILBURTON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0657 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0655 AM    POTEAU                    OK   65 MPH TSTORM WIND
05/08/03   LE FLORE                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

0655 AM    POTEAU                    OK   0.88 IN HAIL
05/08/03   LE FLORE

SP

ARZ020-081330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
742 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 830
   AM CDT...

AT 742 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WATALULA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
TAFT...OZARK...WATALULA...JETHRO...MOUNTAIN TOP...PARADISE...BARNES
AND WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 830 AM
CDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.