Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
920 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

MESONET AT 02Z SHOWING SURFACE BOUNDARY/DRYLINE STILL DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA.  L/M60 DEWPOINTS BACK AS FAR NORTH AS A TULSA TO GROVE
LINE...WITH L/M70S OVER THE FAR SOUTH.  CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED WELL TO THE
EAST...BUT CONTINUING TO SEE JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA IN EASTERN
AREAS.  WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE ZONES AND LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ZONES
STRETCHING DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM ROUGHLY JAY TO MUSKOGEE
TO HENRYETTA AND IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT THE
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BECOME TOO SHALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND THE
AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF A STILWELL TO HUGO LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL TEND TO WEAKEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOST DAYS THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF A STILWELL TO WILBURTON
LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0431 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    7 WNW VINITA              OK   F0 TORNADO
05/04/03   CRAIG                          BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN
                                          FIELD.

0555 PM    2 S NARCISSA              OK   F1 TORNADO
05/04/03   OTTAWA                         A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT
                                          555PM 2 MILES SOUTH OF
                                          NARCISSA AND CONTINUED FOR
                                          5 MILES...LIFTING 2 MILES
                                          NORTHEAST OF FAIRLAND.  THE
                                          TORNADO DESTROYED 2 MOBILE
                                          HOMES.  THE PATH LENGTH WAS
                                          5 MILES.  THE PATH WIDTH
                                          WAS UP TO 1/2 MILE.

SP.