Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
230 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

...MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

IMPULSE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.  THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST AS A COLD
FRONT.  MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA WITH WEAKER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN I-70 AND I-80
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER (60S) WITH DEWPOINTS ON
THE RISE.

DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD STRADDLE THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  WITH THE ADDITION OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE EAST AS THE SURFACE
FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHETHER CONVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND HIGHS COULD
CREEP HIGHER THAN 82-85.

CONVECTION MAY END OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL COUNTIES...BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.  REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WILL CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW WILL EVOLVE INTO A NEARLY CUTOFF LOW TO THE EAST WITH
RIDGING TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST.  ALTHOUGH NCEP CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...ALL MODELS ARE TRENDING TO THIS SOLUTION.  THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WITH THE RIDGING
PINCHING OFF THE MOISTURE.  OVERALL THIS WOULD KEEP THE AREA
GENERALLY DRY (NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY) FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  KEPT TEMPERATURES 80-85
FOR HIGHS AND 60-65 FOR LOWS.

ROGERS

.TOP...NONE.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-101000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
446 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING THEN SPREAD OVER NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE INITIAL THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS.  DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH ALL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)