Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
200 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

...MAIN CONCERN IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...

MCS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WAS CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
EARLY AFTERNOON.  SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
DONT SEEM TO HAVE BEEN TOO AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTION.

PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS THE INTERACTION OF A MAJOR WAVE
SHOWN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...AND A WEAKER
H700 WAVE NOTED IN THE MORNING ANALYSIS AND 18Z PROFILER WINDS
MOVING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE TWO WAVES WILL LIKELY
LINK DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE FASTER
SPEED OF THE SOUTHERN FEATURE MAY PUSH EAST QUICK ENOUGH TO FORCE
CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

IF CONVECTION FIRES DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
OVER FOR THE NORTHCENTRAL COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT AND FOR THE REMAINDER
BY 3AM AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

ALTHOUGH MAIN CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...PUSH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR
MID-WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD.  H500 LOW MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS EARLY
FRIDAY EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD SPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH LOW IS SHOWN OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...AM CONCERNED
ABOUT EXACT TIMING AND POSSIBILITY OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS.  AS A
RESULT KEPT LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST SATURDAY TAPERING OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING ONLY FOR THE NORTHCENTRAL.  SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS A LEE SLOPE LOW ALREADY BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON MONDAY AS H500 FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.  LOW LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON TRW OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHEAST.  WITH A CONTINUED INFLOW OF MOISTURE...CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

ROGERS

.TOP...NONE.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)