Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
320 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALS WITH CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN OLD
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH EAST CORNER OF KS AND WAS
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER NORTHWEST NM. AS THE LLV JET INCREASES...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THE
BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED FOR THE MOST PART INDICATING LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF A
STORM IS ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY BEFORE SUNSET.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS OK AND INTO CENTRAL KS...PRECIP
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY FOR COORDINATIONS PURPOSES. HOWEVER THINK THE DRY SLOT
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
KS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP
SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE NEB STATE LINE AS THE LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST. CONSIDERED INSERTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SAT
EVENING NEAR THE NEB AND MO STATE LINES BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE
LEFT SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
COOLER TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GOOD. DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF HPC AND LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.TOP...NONE.

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KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-101000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
402 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND MAY SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM. THE
AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HERINGTON TO HOLTON. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

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