Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
321 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.

SPC HAS UPGRADED EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE MODERATE RANGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE CHARTS SHOW 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRAG THIS MOISTURE
NORTH.  SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR RUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA
AFTER 18Z.  CAPES SHOULD APPROACH 3000 J/KG WITH DECENT SHEAR
PROFILE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY
CATEGORY IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING.  WILL HANDLE
THIS WITH MENTION OF SCATTERED WORDING FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
SURFACE LOW.  THE RAIN/CLOUDS MAY ALSO STRENGTHEN BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WILL LINGER THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING TONIGHT THEN GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO INTO THE WEEKEND AS ENDLESS
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NEVER TOO FAR AWAY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY BASED ON
COLLABORATION BUT GFS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

.TOP...NONE

62

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
506 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE PART OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 75 WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)