Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
255 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND PROFILERS SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. SFC
FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST NE TO CENTRAL KS SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STEEPER
LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SHEAR (ALTHOUGH MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL) WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAKENING CAP TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD THEN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS
OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WOULD EXPECT SOME SUPERCELLS INITIALLY TO EVOLVE TO MORE
LINEAR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

SECOND WAVE WILL ROTATE INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THREAT THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE EAST AS DRYSLOT
REMAINS MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH AFTERNOON DRYING
GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

DRIER AIR TO THEN OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR WILL HOLD OFF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES INTO THE CWA. TROUGH
THEN AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRY AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

.TOP...NONE.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CDT WED APR 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE 6 PM ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS.  THE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY FIRE ALONG A WARM
FRONT FROM MARYSVILLE TO SALINA THEN SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.

ALL OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL HAVE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)