Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
258 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS OVER PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

88-D SHOWING ECHOES STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  WILL
BREAK DOWN TODAY PERIOD INTO THREE 4-HOUR GROUPS AND GO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN FIRST GROUP EXCEPT ALONG THE CENTER OF THE CWA FROM
SW TO NORTHEAST WHERE MAIN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO ROLL IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.  SECOND 4-HOUR TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE CHANCE CATEGORY
EVERYWHERE AS A TEMPORARY LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR...THE FINAL
4-HOUR TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS AS UPPER WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM PLAY A ROLE.  ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER WAVE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEP THROUGH.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS LOWER LAYER MOISTURE
ARRIVES AND MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING COMES INTO PLAY.

DRY FORECAST TUESDAY ON UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA.

TODAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO THE 50S
TUESDAY AS NEW AIR MASS SETTLES IN.  COOLING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE 70S THURSDAY.  SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY...AND DOWN TO THE 50S BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LWS

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
401 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE,

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT,,,

SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

LWS