Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
323 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTION TONIGHT AND PRECIP CHANCES
MID WEEK.

CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FIRE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THIS
IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE CLOSED LOW. A COLD FRONT ALSO STRETCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SURFACE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH THIS EVENING...HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTH EAST QUICKLY TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH IT. WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVERHEAD HAVE REMOVED PRECIP FOR
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH A COOL NORTHWEST WIND.

THERE ARE NO REAL BIG SWINGS IN THE MODELS FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. CONTINUED DRY FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW SPINS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AREA WHICH
MAY HELP TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST SECTION, BUT PRECIP
SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. NEXT UPPER LOW STILL ON
SCHEDULE FOR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL SUSPICIOUS OF QPF
GENERATED BY GFS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FEATURES SUPPORTING
IT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE PMDEPD WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK. THIS WAS HOW THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WHERE HANDLING IT. THE
ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO BEING CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW. HAVE HELD ONTO POPS UP TO 12Z FRI BUT KEPT THE
DAY TIME HOURS DRY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OCCURRING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND CLIMO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. THE CURRENT BLOCKING PATTERN IS ALLOWING FORM
MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE SOUTH PERIODICALLY. THIS COMBINED WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TO WARM.

.TOP...NONE.

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KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
408 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
BY 6 PM. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ABILENE...THROUGH MANHATTAN TO SENECA. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COUNCIL GROVE...THROUGH TOPEKA TO LAWRENCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

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