Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
326 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK CONTINUES TO THE BE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

ANALYSIS OF 00Z DATA SHOWED MAIN JET IN THE CONUS VICINITY SCREAMING
SOUTHEAST INTO BAJA WITH 170KT AIRREP WET OF SAN FRANCISCO. THERE
WERE A FEW 70K CORES MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS WITH ONE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA VIA ACARS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH LOW SPINNING
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND ANOTHER SHOT THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS.
ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN COAST TROF WAS WORKING ITS
WAY NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. 850MB LEVEL HAS MOISTENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE 24 HRS PRIOR WITH 3C DEWPOINT ON KTOP SOUNDING.
08Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW FROM DAKOTA UPPER WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SD/MN BORDER BUT 60F DEWPOINTS STILL IN SOUTH TEXAS.

RADAR LOOP SHOWING THUNDERSTORM BAND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON NOSE
OF 850MB JET PER PROFILER DATA AS THE UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY EAST.
THIS BATCH SHOULD BE EXITING THIS MORNING BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE WAVE MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO THIS AREA WHICH JIVES WELL
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE DECENT SUNSHINE
AND WILL KEEP THEM THE WARMEST. RECORD TEMPS APPEAR THREATENED AGAIN
TODAY WITH STANDING MARKS OF 79 AT TOP AND 80 AT CNK.

MODELS SHOWING NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY TO SWING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
UPPER LOW WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT FOR SOME HAILERS. TROWAL POSITION WHICH WAS OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS HAS SLIPPED TO THE KS/NE BORDER WHICH
MATCHES QPF FORECASTS WELL. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUN MONDAY TO
PUSH HIGHS AROUND 70 BUT  EXPECT MORE CLOUDS AND A MORE EASTERLY
FLOW TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 55-65 RANGE TUESDAY.

WITH UNCERTAINTY HIGH WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW HAVE
LEFT THE LATER PERIOD UNCHANGED.

.TOP...NONE.

65

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A HIAWATHA TO HERINGTON LINE...AND TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS A
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

THE RANGELAND FIRE INDEX WILL BE IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)