Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
343 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

PRECIPITATION/HEAVY RAIN CHANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN HOW WARM TO GO WITH TEMPERATURES MID TO
LATE WEEK.

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS
PUSHING FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING 30-45 KT SWRLY LLJ ACROSS KS...HELPING TO FIRE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. FRONT INDICATED TO SAG INTO
NORTHERN PART OF CWA WHERE IT WILL GO NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS PER MODELS. WITH ONGOING TSTMS...WILL
GO WITH SCATTERED TRW- FOR NORTHERN PART OF CWA FOR THIS MORNING AND
KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN CWA. DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF CWA
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S
WHILE MAY STILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70.

MODELS INDICATING MAIN EVENT TO TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AREA WILL BE UNDER RIGHT REAR OF UPPER JET...GENERATING CONSIDER
VERTICAL MOTION. MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK PROBLEMS IN THE
GFS...BUT WITH BOTH ETA AND GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SPITTING OUT
SIGNIFICANT QPF...DONT FEEL LIKE CAN IGNORE AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND MENTION
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY..JUST WHAT WE DONT NEED IN REPUBLIC COUNTY
RIGHT NOW AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF LAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
TAPER POPS OFF SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST...IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH ALL CLOUDS AND LIKELY
RAIN...WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL TO MIDDLE
80S EAST CENTRAL SUNDAY.

WILL HOLD ONTO 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CWA
FOR MONDAY. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATING MAY
SEE BROKEN STRATOCU DECK ACROSS MUCH OF AREA MONDAY...WILL GO WITH
HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CWA.

TUESDAY AND ON THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY FINALLY LOOKING DRY AND
GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA. GOING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY...THEN IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME
READING IN THE UPPER 90S BY FRIDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.TOP...NONE

38

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. THEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN OVER MAINLY EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)