Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Great Falls, MT

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2003

.DISCUSSION...WILL UPDATE ZONES AND STATE. GOOD PUSH OF COOLER AIR
CONTINUES WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN
ZONES. WILL ADD SOME CLOUD COVER AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL. SEVERAL MINOR
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TIMING IS
COMPLICATED. UPPER LEVEL TROF TO PASS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTION WILL
INHIBIT SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AIR MASS VERY WET AND
UNSTABLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL THIS AFTERNOON. CAMP

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE PERIOD...CONTINUING THE MOIST
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA. A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STORMS
OVER THE TFX CWA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM LOW
ISOLATED IN THE NORTH TO HIGH SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE
HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE DUE TO A FEW THINGS: STRONGER
DISTURBANCES, MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR STORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING DOWN
OUT OF CANADA OVERNIGHT (IT MOVED THROUGH GREAT FALLS SHORTLY AFTER 3
AM)...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
(WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT CUT BANK). IT IS SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO SWITCH UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...
THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...ALLOWING
THOSE AREAS TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SHOWER-MOISTENED AIR TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...AND PROVIDE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR WET THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH STORMS BEING WET AGAIN TODAY THERE...NO RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS WILL DECREASE AS THE
AIRMASS STABILIZES OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO
THE 50S FOR LOWS. A SITUATION SIMILAR TO TODAYS WILL SET UP FOR
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THERE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY AS THOSE
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.  COULSTON

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD...ALLOWING
THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE AND CAUSING ANY STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARER AS WELL...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL A
FEW MORE DEGREES.  COULSTON

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE WRN U.S. SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
90S PER CURRENT FORECAST. SHOULD ALSO BE DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF FAR SW MT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ETA
DEVELOPS SOME QPF AND WILL ADD ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THAT REASON AND
ALSO TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALTHOUGH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL NOT DO THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION ANY FAVORS ON THE
GOOD SIDE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WINDS TO
BE 15 MPH OR LESS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS DO HINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AROUND NEXT THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUE VERY HOT AND DRY WITH THE ONLY RELIEF FROM
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILLIAMSON DC

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BB 085/057 085/056 090 10222
    UUUUB 057/094 057/093 060/098 064/096 067 20000000000
CTB BB 083/053 083/054 088 10220
    UUUUB 055/092 055/091 056/094 057/094 061 00000000000
HLN EB 088/060 089/059 093 10332
    UUUUB 062/096 062/097 063/100 066/096 066 20000000000
BZN EB 090/058 087/053 093 10553
    UUUUB 054/096 054/096 057/097 058/096 057 30000000000
WEY EB 081/051 080/046 086 10553
    BUUUB 047/090 047/091 048/092 047/090 047 31100000000
DLN EB 088/058 086/054 092 10552
    BUUUB 055/095 055/096 058/097 055/095 055 20000000000
HVR BB 090/060 086/058 092 10220
    UUUUB 058/096 058/094 061/101 067/098 069 00000000000
LWT EB 088/059 083/056 087 10332
    UUUUB 056/091 056/089 057/095 064/093 063 20000000000

.TFX...NONE.

MTZ008>015-044>055-260010-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
610 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.