Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Great Falls, MT

July 16, 2003Fergus County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 16, 2003, 4:59 PM MDT for Fergus County, Montana. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2003, 4:59 PM MDT (22:59 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2003, 6:00 PM MDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Fergus County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3314 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

012 
WUUS55 KTFX 162259
SVRTFX
MTC027-170000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
458 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  FERGUS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 600 PM MDT

* AT 447 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DENTON...OR ABOUT 11 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF STANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  9 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINIFRED AT 555 PM MDT

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER
AWAY FROM CREEK BEDS AND OTHER FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. REMEMBER...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

LAT...LON 4740 11016 4721 10974 4690 10970 4698 10874
          4776 10915


$$

14

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 16, 2:15 PM MDT, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 2:15 PM MDT, 2 hours 44 minutes before

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2003

.SHORT TERM...GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED TO EASTERN MONTANA ALLOWING FOR BACKING FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS ALOFT BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. AIRMASS
IS EXTREMELY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. RAINFALL WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY ROAM
SO WILL GO WITH A BLANKET ISOLATED POP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.
EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
WINDS HAVE PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING TO BE ISSUED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIC DURING THE PERIOD WITH READINGS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
EMANUEL

.EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS
KNOCKED DOWN A LITTLE BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (STILL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH)
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AGAIN MONDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MEIER

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BU 058/091 056/090 055 08200
    UUUUB 089/054 086/052 089/057 094/058 093 00000000000
CTB UU 057/087 052/087 053 08200
    UUUUB 086/053 081/051 088/055 089/054 088 00000000000
HLN UU 059/092 057/091 056 08211
    UUUUB 089/055 090/053 091/059 094/060 093 10000000000
BZN BU 054/092 052/090 052 08222
    UUUUU 089/051 088/052 090/053 092/052 091 2211--00000
WEY BU 042/087 044/084 045 082-2
    UUUUU 084/052 084/045 082/045 090/040 089 22111100000
DLN BU 055/092 053/090 052 08222
    UUUUU 088/051 088/052 089/053 091/053 090 22111100000
HVR BU 062/095 058/093 056 08210
    UUUUB 090/056 087/054 087/058 096/059 095 00000000000
LWT BU 058/091 055/088 054 08222
    UUUUB 087/053 081/052 085/054 088/056 087 20000000000

.TFX...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
       ZONES 112 THROUGH 118 FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW
       RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 6:10 AM MDT, 10 hours 49 minutes before

MTZ008>015-044>055-170010-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
610 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO
GTFRFWTFX FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 5:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Judith Basin	25 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.