Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Great Falls, MT

June 15, 2003Fergus County, Judith Basin County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 15, 2003, 9:56 PM MDT for Fergus County, Judith Basin County, Montana. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2003, 9:56 PM MDT (03:56 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2003, 10:45 PM MDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Fergus County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 160 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2324 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KTFX 160356
SVRTFX
MTC027-045-160445-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
955 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN FERGUS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA
  SOUTHEASTERN JUDITH BASIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 1045 PM MDT

* AT 951 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF BUFFALO...OR ABOUT 25 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF STANFORD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  OVER BUFFALO AT 1025 PM MDT
  5 MILES NORTH OF GARNEILL AT 1045 PM MDT

THIS STORM HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. 

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

LAT...LON 4697 10999 4680 11011 4669 10968 4675 10952
          4688 10953

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 15, 9:25 PM MDT, 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 9:25 PM MDT, 31 minutes before

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO ZFP AND SFP COMING SOON. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM
NEAR HELENA THROUGH LEWISTOWN. ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY SEEN ON RADAR
NEAR GREAT FALLS MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN JUDITH BASIN AND
FERGUS COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, THEN CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
DOWN AS JET STREAK MOVES EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE, JUST A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED. JCA

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MOST ACTIVE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING 300MB
JET PASSAGE. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST WITH ISOLATED POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY MONDAY THOUGH AIRMASS STILL UNSTABLE WITH SOUTHWEST
AGAIN UNDER GREATEST THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UPPER RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO THE
YELLOWSTONE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME QPF. WILL GO WITH
ISOLATED POPS TO COVER THIS. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EMANUEL

.LONG TERM...EXPECT A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS
CRITICAL FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP. IF THE FRONT DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON...SO IT
SHOULD NOT BE AS HOT. SECONDLY...THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAY
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MONTANA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PERIOD...FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. COOLER AIR ALSO MOVES INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S AND 70S BY SATURDAY.  BRUSDA/COULSTON

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BB 052/082 052/085 054 08222
    BBBBB 089/056 081/045 074/041 071/041 072 00002333220
CTB BB 048/080 050/082 053 08021
    BBBBB 085/056 079/045 073/041 070/041 071 00012332220
HLN BB 053/083 053/085 055 08222
    BBBBB 089/058 082/049 079/045 076/045 077 00213332330
BZN BB 049/081 050/083 051 08433
    BBBBB 086/053 079/047 076/043 073/043 075 00212332330
WEY BB 038/072 040/075 045 08233
    BBBBB 080/052 077/046 074/042 071/042 074 33222233331
DLN BB 048/081 050/083 052 08122
    BBBBB 088/055 080/049 077/045 074/045 076 0022333233-
HVR BB 054/084 054/087 054 08122
    BBBBB 090/057 083/053 079/049 073/047 074 00000333330
LWT BB 052/080 052/082 052 08433
    BBBBB 086/056 080/052 078/048 075/046 076 00000333330

.TFX...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 6:15 AM MDT, 15 hours 41 minutes before

MTZ008>015-044>055-160010-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
615 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 15, 4:59 PM MDT, 4 hours 57 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
459 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....EVENT  LOCATION..... ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS...........
           .....COUNTY LOCATION.....

0435 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0439 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0451 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

NNNN

Local storm report, Jun 15, 5:31 PM MDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
531 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....EVENT  LOCATION..... ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS...........
           .....COUNTY LOCATION.....

0435 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0439 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0451 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0529 PM    WINDHAM                   MT   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   JUDITH  BASIN

NNNN

Local storm report, Jun 15, 6:37 PM MDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
637 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....EVENT  LOCATION..... ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS...........
           .....COUNTY LOCATION.....

0435 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0439 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0451 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0529 PM    WINDHAM                   MT   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   JUDITH  BASIN

0635 PM    DENTON                    MT   1.25 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   FERGUS

NNNN

Local storm report, Jun 15, 8:07 PM MDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
807 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....EVENT  LOCATION..... ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS...........
           .....COUNTY LOCATION.....

0435 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0439 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0451 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0529 PM    WINDHAM                   MT   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   JUDITH  BASIN

0635 PM    DENTON                    MT   1.25 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   FERGUS

0705 PM    11 NE DENTON              MT   1.50 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   FERGUS

NNNN

Local storm report, Jun 15, 9:10 PM MDT, 46 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....EVENT  LOCATION..... ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS...........
           .....COUNTY LOCATION.....

0435 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0439 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0451 PM    3 NW MARTINSDALE          MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   MEAGHER

0529 PM    WINDHAM                   MT   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   JUDITH  BASIN

0635 PM    DENTON                    MT   1.25 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   FERGUS

0705 PM    11 NE DENTON              MT   1.50 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   FERGUS

0908 PM    7 SW UTICA                MT   1 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   JUDITH  BASIN

NNNN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 6:09 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	51 min
Jun 15, 7:01 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	59 min
Jun 15, 7:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Jefferson	40 min
Jun 15, 8:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	51 min
Jun 15, 9:04 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Judith Basin	41 min
Jun 15, 10:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Lewis and Clark	65 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.