Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Great Falls, MT

June 15, 2003Meagher County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 15, 2003, 4:37 PM MDT for Meagher County, Montana. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2003, 4:37 PM MDT (22:37 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2003, 5:00 PM MDT
In force: 23 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Meagher County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1753 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -236 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 418 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

404 
WUUS55 KTFX 152237
SVRTFX
MTC059-152300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
437 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MEAGHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA

* UNTIL 500 PM MDT

* AT 434 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER MARTINSDALE...OR ABOUT 22 MILES WEST OF
  HARLOWTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU 
ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO 
A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

LAT...LON 4658 11040 4643 11037 4652 10997 4664 11014

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 15, 2:15 PM MDT, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 2:15 PM MDT, 2 hours 22 minutes before

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
215 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MOST ACTIVE OVER
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING 300MB JET PASSAGE. WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EAST WITH ISOLATED POPS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY MONDAY
THOUGH AIRMASS STILL UNSTABLE WITH SOUTHWEST AGAIN UNDER GREATEST
THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO THE YELLOWSTONE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCE SOME QPF. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED POPS TO COVER
THIS. TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EMANUEL

.LONG TERM...EXPECT A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS
CRITICAL FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP. IF THE FRONT DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON...SO IT
SHOULD NOT BE AS HOT. SECONDLY...THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAY
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MONTANA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
PERIOD...FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. COOLER AIR ALSO MOVES INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S AND 70S BY SATURDAY.  BRUSDA/COULSTON

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BB 052/082 052/085 054 08222
    BBBBB 089/056 081/045 074/041 071/041 072 00002333220
CTB BB 048/080 050/082 053 08121
    BBBBB 085/056 079/045 073/041 070/041 071 00012332220
HLN BB 053/083 053/085 055 08322
    BBBBB 089/058 082/049 079/045 076/045 077 00213332330
BZN BB 049/081 050/083 051 08433
    BBBBB 086/053 079/047 076/043 073/043 075 00212332330
WEY BB 038/072 040/075 045 08433
    BBBBB 080/052 077/046 074/042 071/042 074 33222233331
DLN BB 048/081 050/083 052 08322
    BBBBB 088/055 080/049 077/045 074/045 076 0022333233-
HVR BB 054/084 054/087 054 08222
    BBBBB 090/057 083/053 079/049 073/047 074 00000333330
LWT BB 052/080 052/082 052 08433
    BBBBB 086/056 080/052 078/048 075/046 076 00000333330

.TFX...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 6:15 AM MDT, 10 hours 22 minutes before

MTZ008>015-044>055-160010-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
615 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 4:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus	47 min
Jun 15, 5:24 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Judith Basin	51 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.