Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Great Falls, MT

June 10, 2003Pondera County, Toole County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 10, 2003, 2:46 PM MDT for Pondera County, Toole County, Montana. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 10, 2003, 2:46 PM MDT (20:46 UTC)
Expired: Jun 10, 2003, 3:45 PM MDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Pondera County, MT, Toole County, MT

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 10, 2:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 12 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -104 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 890 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 41 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

653 
WUUS55 KTFX 102046
SVRTFX
MTC073-101-102145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
245 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL PONDERA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
  SOUTHERN TOOLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SHELBY

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT

* AT 240 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 27 MILES WEST OF SHELBY...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF CUT BANK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  7 MILES SOUTH OF SHELBY AT 345 PM MDT

LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4865 11201 4864 11186 4850 11162 4817 11185
          4841 11245 4848 11235 4848 11218 4860 11218

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 10, 2:35 PM MDT, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 2:35 PM MDT, 11 minutes before

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT930
235 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2003

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ENERGY CONTINUING TO MOVE MORE SOUTHERLY FROM BC TOWARDS
WESTERN MT. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER AIR DIVERGENCE WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER. LI OF -4 OVER MOST OF CWA WITH
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO SURFACE. MODELS SLOWED
THE FRONT DOWN SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIFTING MECHANISM THROUGH THE
NIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TRACK.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROF TO MOVE THROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTION OF ZONES.

THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AREA BRINGING A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND. CAMP

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN THE SHORT
WAVE RIDGE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  MEIER

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS MODEL CONTINUES A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. THUS
WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. WILLIAMSON DC

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF EB 048/073 046/076 049 0761-
    BBBBB 078/049 074/048 074/047 074/047 072 00332244444
CTB EB 047/068 045/073 043 07621
    BBBBB 074/048 071/047 070/046 070/046 068 00332244444
HLN BB 049/076 049/077 047 0761-
    BBBBB 077/050 076/050 076/049 076/049 074 00333344444
BZN BB 044/074 043/077 049 07600
    BBEEE 078/047 075/045 075/044 075/044 073 00222233333
WEY BB 037/067 034/070 047 07300
    BBEEE 070/042 069/042 066/041 066/041 064 22122233333
DLN BB 043/074 043/075 047 07300
    BBEEE 076/045 075/045 072/044 072/044 070 22223333333
HVR EB 049/073 049/077 052 07621
    BBBBB 082/053 078/050 077/049 077/049 075 00330033333
LWT BB 046/070 045/077 049 076--
    BBBBB 080/050 071/047 070/046 070/046 068 00330044444

.TFX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ZONES 9-10-14-46-49-52
       UNTIL 9PM.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 10, 6:10 AM MDT, 8 hours 36 minutes before

MTZ008>015-044>055-110010-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
610 AM MDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. PLEASE REFER TO GTFSPSTFX FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 10, 2:10 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Pondera, Teton	35 min
Jun 10, 2:11 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Glacier	64 min
Jun 10, 3:34 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Pondera, Teton	56 min
Jun 10, 4:04 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau	56 min
Jun 10, 4:54 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau	51 min
Jun 10, 5:35 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Lewis and Clark	55 min
Jun 10, 5:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau	61 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.