Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
236 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2003

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...SUMTER...
AND PASCO COUNTIES. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS LEVY COUNTY
AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTH END OF THE CWFA SHORTLY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...DEEP LOW OVER THE LOWER MISS. RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CWFA TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL SAT AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE SAT AS THE THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U.S. COAST. THE FRONT SLIDES INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHEST
ODDS FOR PCPN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL TAPER BACK ON
POPS GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN KEEP LOW END POPS FOR THE
WEEK END...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS TO COOL SLIGHTLY
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING NEAR CLIMO.

.EXTENDED (MON-FRI)...THE SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINS SOME CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE OLD FRONT
LINGERS OVER OR OFFSHORE SOUTH FL. WITH TIME THE HIGH MOVES EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC AS MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT STARTS TO WORK NORTH.
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TREND IN THE EXTENDED FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON-EVENING PCPN. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER
60S AT NIGHT WITH HIGHS MID 80S.

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
DROP ENOUGH TO MOSTLY LIKELY DROP IT WITH THE 1030 PM ISSUANCE.
WINDS GENERALLY VEER AROUND AS THE FRONT MOVES BY AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THIS FWX FORECAST PACKAGE.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 067/084 062/085 2320
TPA 071/084 068/085 221-
GIF 070/086 067/087 332-
SRQ 070/083 067/084 1212
FMY 072/086 069/087 2321

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
       SUWANNEE RIVER.

RKR

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-252130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1130 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WILL APPROACH THE NATURE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-252300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
651 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY...SUMTER AND PASCO.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKSVILLE...CHIEFLAND...INVERNESS...NEW
PORT RICHEY...SPRING HILL AND ZEPHYRHILLS.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN PASCO
COUNTY...UNTIL 730 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

FLZ049-252330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
703 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PASCO COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT
ODESSA...LAND O LAKES AND WESLEY CHAPEL...UNTIL 730 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

GOLDSMITH

FLZ050-051-260000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
717 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE TAMPA BAY METRO AREA...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY BEFORE 8 PM...AND TAMPA AND THE
NORTHERN SUBURBS BETWEEN 745 AND 830 PM. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

GOLDSMITH