Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003

CURRENTLY...TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND IS PUSHING RAPIDLY WEST AWAY FROM THE REGION.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.

SHORT TERM (FRI-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  L/L FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEABREEZE...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST
SEABREEZE PUSHES ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE TWO SEABREEZES COLLIDE
LATE EACH DAY.

EXTENDED(SUN-THU)...WEAK FLOW ALOFT STARTS THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY THEN
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND INCREASES BY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE
LONG WAVE TROF SETS UP IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.  LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA
BREEZE INDUCED STORMS. SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT SO GULF
SHOWERS TO MAKE IT ONSHORE BY DAYBREAK. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THRU THURSDAY. NORTHERN ZONES TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF ENERGY WITH EASTERN U.S. TROF.

MARINE...SCA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.

PRELIMINARY #S
TPA 076/090 074/089 4535
FMY 075/090 073/090 4535
GIF 074/091 072/091 4535
SRQ 075/090 073/088 4535
BKV 073/090 070/089 4535

.TBW...SCA FROM BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 60 NM INCLUDING
       TAMPA BAY.

EO

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-141600-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
600 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A FAIRLY FAST MOVING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING THEN INTO THE
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA GENERATING BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST FROM
THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD. THESE FAST MOVING SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTING. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN POORLY DRAINED...LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS
WORSEN ANY ONGOING FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...WITH
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. BREEZY NORTHEAST THEN EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SEAS BUILD TO 5 FEET OR GREATER WELL OFFSHORE.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

MARINERS PLANNING TRIPS TODAY...MAY WANT TO POSTPONE THEM UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH IMPROVED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET AND MIGRATE OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...

RD

FLZ065-142000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
323 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT COASTAL AND INLAND SOUTHERN LEE
COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT ESTERO...BONITA
SHORES AND SANIBEL...UNTIL 400 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

GOLDSMITH